The January 2026 U.S. special operation capturing Nicolás Maduro through targeted strikes and an apprehension force in Caracas did not meet Polymarket criteria for invasion, as it involved no territorial occupation or sustained control. This event, followed by Maduro’s handover on narco-terrorism charges, prompted rapid diplomatic normalization, embassy reopening, oil supply agreements, and sanctions relief by March. As of August 2026, trader consensus reflects low odds of invasion due to the interim government’s engagement in opposition talks, bipartisan Senate calls for elections, and U.S. focus on deportations and post-earthquake aid. Key variables ahead include negotiation outcomes, any escalation signals from Washington, and whether future military actions cross the platform’s defined threshold of establishing control over Venezuelan territory.