Trump's job approval has averaged in the low-to-mid 30s to high 30s through mid-2026, with recent polls showing figures as low as 33% amid persistent economic discontent and the ongoing Iran conflict. Key drivers include inflation pressures, higher energy costs tied to the Strait of Hormuz situation, and voter assessments of foreign policy costs. Midterm elections in November 2026 represent the primary near-term catalyst that could shift ratings, alongside any diplomatic developments or economic data releases. Traders assess limited rebound potential given historical patterns for second-term presidents facing similar headwinds and the stability of partisan attitudes.