Trump’s approval rating has trended downward through 2025 and 2026, recently averaging 34-38% approve versus 59-64% disapprove across multiple aggregators, with net figures near -20 to -27. Key drivers include public assessments of economic conditions, particularly tariffs’ effects on prices and gas costs, alongside mixed results on border security and a stalemated foreign policy situation. Support has softened even among Republicans and key voter groups that backed him in 2024. The November 2026 midterms represent the primary near-term catalyst, as historical patterns show presidential approval strongly influencing congressional outcomes and vice versa, with any post-election policy adjustments or economic shifts potentially moving ratings before year-end. Traders weigh these dynamics against the typical midterm penalty for the president’s party.