**Magdalena Andersson leads the market at 72% following the September 13, 2026, election, where her Social Democrats secured 99 seats as the largest party and the centre-left bloc (Social Democrats, Left Party, Greens, Centre) narrowly won 176 of 349 Riksdag seats against the right-leaning bloc's 173.** Ongoing government formation talks have produced repeated failed prime ministerial votes, including Andersson's own on October 15 and Centre Party leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist's on November 3. As of November 15, the Centre Party has signaled willingness to advance negotiations with Andersson on a government including the Greens, conditional on the Left Party dropping demands for cabinet seats. This development has driven the sharp recent rise in Andersson's implied probability, as traders price in her path to a tolerated minority or coalition arrangement that avoids both Sweden Democrat influence and internal bloc fractures. Ulf Kristersson, the outgoing caretaker prime minister, holds 27% amid his extended exploratory mandate ending November 17, though his bloc's parliamentary position remains narrower. Other listed names trade below 1% due to limited parliamentary support or party positioning. Resolution depends on the Speaker's next nomination and subsequent Riksdag vote thresholds.