Recent polling from early May places the AfD at 41 percent in Saxony-Anhalt ahead of the September 6 state election, a record high that narrows the gap to an absolute majority but leaves it short of the roughly 45 percent needed once smaller parties clear or miss the five-percent threshold. The CDU trails at 26 percent, with the Left, SPD, and others fragmenting the remaining vote in ways that could dilute AfD seat gains in the 83-seat Landtag. Traders assign the “No” outcome a 57.5 percent implied probability because four months remain for modest shifts in turnout or coalition dynamics among mainstream parties to prevent a first-ever outright majority for the party in any German state parliament.