Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Ciro Gomes at 62% implied probability for the Ceará governorship, driven by consistent late-April polls like Genial/Quaest (41% first-round lead over Elmano de Freitas's 32%) and Veritá (54% valid votes vs. 35%), where he defeats the incumbent in simulated runoffs. His May 11 announcement forgoing a presidential bid to focus on the state race, coupled with the PL do Ceará's May 14 endorsement despite national tensions, has solidified his frontrunner status as a strong challenger. Incumbent Governor Elmano de Freitas (22%) trails amid PT debates over replacing him with Senator Camilo Santana (7%), who fares better head-to-head but lags in first-round scenarios. Eduardo Girão (7%), Capitão Wagner (5%), and Roberto Cláudio (2%) trail distantly. The first round is October 4, with a potential runoff October 25 if no candidate secures a majority.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Ciro Gomes 64%
Elmano de Freitas 22%
卡米洛·桑塔纳 5.9%
Roberto Cláudio 2.1%
$53,753 交易量
$53,753 交易量
2026-10-04
Ciro Gomes
64%
Elmano de Freitas
22%
卡米洛·桑塔纳
6%
Roberto Cláudio
2%
Capitão Wagner
2%
Eduardo Girão
8%
Ciro Gomes 64%
Elmano de Freitas 22%
卡米洛·桑塔纳 5.9%
Roberto Cláudio 2.1%
$53,753 交易量
$53,753 交易量
2026-10-04
Ciro Gomes
$36,138 交易量
64%
Elmano de Freitas
$5,657 交易量
22%
卡米洛·桑塔纳
$3,160 交易量
6%
Roberto Cláudio
$1,785 交易量
2%
Capitão Wagner
$3,938 交易量
2%
Eduardo Girão
$3,075 交易量
8%
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Ciro Gomes at 62% implied probability for the Ceará governorship, driven by consistent late-April polls like Genial/Quaest (41% first-round lead over Elmano de Freitas's 32%) and Veritá (54% valid votes vs. 35%), where he defeats the incumbent in simulated runoffs. His May 11 announcement forgoing a presidential bid to focus on the state race, coupled with the PL do Ceará's May 14 endorsement despite national tensions, has solidified his frontrunner status as a strong challenger. Incumbent Governor Elmano de Freitas (22%) trails amid PT debates over replacing him with Senator Camilo Santana (7%), who fares better head-to-head but lags in first-round scenarios. Eduardo Girão (7%), Capitão Wagner (5%), and Roberto Cláudio (2%) trail distantly. The first round is October 4, with a potential runoff October 25 if no candidate secures a majority.
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市场开放时间： Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
交易量
$53,753结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Ciro Gomes at 62% implied probability for the Ceará governorship, driven by consistent late-April polls like Genial/Quaest (41% first-round lead over Elmano de Freitas's 32%) and Veritá (54% valid votes vs. 35%), where he defeats the incumbent in simulated runoffs. His May 11 announcement forgoing a presidential bid to focus on the state race, coupled with the PL do Ceará's May 14 endorsement despite national tensions, has solidified his frontrunner status as a strong challenger. Incumbent Governor Elmano de Freitas (22%) trails amid PT debates over replacing him with Senator Camilo Santana (7%), who fares better head-to-head but lags in first-round scenarios. Eduardo Girão (7%), Capitão Wagner (5%), and Roberto Cláudio (2%) trail distantly. The first round is October 4, with a potential runoff October 25 if no candidate secures a majority.
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$53,753结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Ciro Gomes at 62% implied probability for the Ceará governorship, driven by consistent late-April polls like Genial/Quaest (41% first-round lead over Elmano de Freitas's 32%) and Veritá (54% valid votes vs. 35%), where he defeats the incumbent in simulated runoffs. His May 11 announcement forgoing a presidential bid to focus on the state race, coupled with the PL do Ceará's May 14 endorsement despite national tensions, has solidified his frontrunner status as a strong challenger. Incumbent Governor Elmano de Freitas (22%) trails amid PT debates over replacing him with Senator Camilo Santana (7%), who fares better head-to-head but lags in first-round scenarios. Eduardo Girão (7%), Capitão Wagner (5%), and Roberto Cláudio (2%) trail distantly. The first round is October 4, with a potential runoff October 25 if no candidate secures a majority.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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