Recent opinion polls ahead of Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election place Miljöpartiet support between roughly 6.3% and 7.2%, producing the narrow trader consensus favoring an under-7% outcome. The party remains within the broader red-green opposition bloc alongside the Social Democrats and Vänsterpartiet, where competition for left-leaning and urban voters creates volatility in its share. Stable but modest figures in Statistics Sweden and private surveys reflect limited movement over recent months, with no decisive late-campaign catalyst yet shifting momentum. Key variables that could alter probabilities include differential turnout among younger and environmental-issue voters, the relative performance of the Left Party, and any last-minute emphasis on climate policy versus economic concerns in final debates or bloc positioning.