The race for first place in Pernambuco's October 4 first round remains closely contested, with trader consensus reflecting Lula's modest edge amid a fragmented field that includes Flávio Bolsonaro, Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and several lower-polling names. Recent national surveys show Lula holding a lead in first-round scenarios, though gaps have narrowed as the official campaign period began on August 15 following candidate registrations. Pernambuco's voter base in the Northeast, combined with ongoing polarization between the Workers' Party and Liberal Party-aligned opposition, sustains volatility. Key factors that could shift probabilities include state-specific turnout patterns, late endorsements, or shifts in economic sentiment ahead of the vote.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于卢拉 85%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 74%
罗纳尔多·凯亚多 61%
赫尔茨·迪亚斯 1.0%
最新
最新
2026-10-04
卢拉
84%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗
74%
罗纳尔多·凯亚多
61%
赫尔茨·迪亚斯
1%
帕布罗·马萨尔
1%
鲁伊·科斯塔·皮门塔
1%
萨马拉
1%
兽医威尔森·格拉西
1%
埃德米尔森·科斯塔
1%
作家奥古斯托·库里
1%
雷南·桑托斯
-
泽马
-
克拉丽安娜·巴拉奥
-
卢拉 85%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 74%
罗纳尔多·凯亚多 61%
赫尔茨·迪亚斯 1.0%
最新
最新
2026-10-04
卢拉
$138 交易量
84%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗
$39 交易量
74%
罗纳尔多·凯亚多
$39 交易量
61%
赫尔茨·迪亚斯
$39 交易量
1%
帕布罗·马萨尔
$39 交易量
1%
鲁伊·科斯塔·皮门塔
$39 交易量
1%
萨马拉
$39 交易量
1%
兽医威尔森·格拉西
$39 交易量
1%
埃德米尔森·科斯塔
$39 交易量
1%
作家奥古斯托·库里
$39 交易量
1%
雷南·桑托斯
$39 交易量
-
泽马
$39 交易量
-
克拉丽安娜·巴拉奥
$39 交易量
-
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pernambuco, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).The race for first place in Pernambuco's October 4 first round remains closely contested, with trader consensus reflecting Lula's modest edge amid a fragmented field that includes Flávio Bolsonaro, Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and several lower-polling names. Recent national surveys show Lula holding a lead in first-round scenarios, though gaps have narrowed as the official campaign period began on August 15 following candidate registrations. Pernambuco's voter base in the Northeast, combined with ongoing polarization between the Workers' Party and Liberal Party-aligned opposition, sustains volatility. Key factors that could shift probabilities include state-specific turnout patterns, late endorsements, or shifts in economic sentiment ahead of the vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pernambuco, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市场开放时间： Aug 17, 2026, 6:33 AM ET
交易量
$610结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 6:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pernambuco, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).The race for first place in Pernambuco's October 4 first round remains closely contested, with trader consensus reflecting Lula's modest edge amid a fragmented field that includes Flávio Bolsonaro, Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and several lower-polling names. Recent national surveys show Lula holding a lead in first-round scenarios, though gaps have narrowed as the official campaign period began on August 15 following candidate registrations. Pernambuco's voter base in the Northeast, combined with ongoing polarization between the Workers' Party and Liberal Party-aligned opposition, sustains volatility. Key factors that could shift probabilities include state-specific turnout patterns, late endorsements, or shifts in economic sentiment ahead of the vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pernambuco, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$610结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 6:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The race for first place in Pernambuco's October 4 first round remains closely contested, with trader consensus reflecting Lula's modest edge amid a fragmented field that includes Flávio Bolsonaro, Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and several lower-polling names. Recent national surveys show Lula holding a lead in first-round scenarios, though gaps have narrowed as the official campaign period began on August 15 following candidate registrations. Pernambuco's voter base in the Northeast, combined with ongoing polarization between the Workers' Party and Liberal Party-aligned opposition, sustains volatility. Key factors that could shift probabilities include state-specific turnout patterns, late endorsements, or shifts in economic sentiment ahead of the vote.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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