Eduardo Paes (PSD) holds an 81% implied probability in the Rio de Janeiro governor race because multiple September 2026 polls, including Datafolha and Prefab Future, show him leading first-round intentions at 37–43% with double-digit margins over Douglas Ruas (PL) at 19–25% and Anthony Garotinho (Republicanos) near 9–10%. His advantage stems from high name recognition as a four-time former Rio mayor, endorsements from President Lula, and consistent leads across voter segments in both first- and second-round simulations. Ruas has narrowed the gap slightly since August through PL alignment and evangelical support, yet remains well behind in head-to-head matchups. Other registered candidates register below 3% and face structural barriers to reaching the runoff on October 25. Traders' pricing aligns with these polling trends and the absence of major late disruptions ahead of the October 4 first round.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于爱德华多·帕埃斯 81.0%
道格拉斯·鲁阿斯 19.6%
拉法·卢兹 <1%
布斯内洛上校 <1%
$492,805 交易量
$492,805 交易量
2026-10-04
爱德华多·帕埃斯
81%
道格拉斯·鲁阿斯
20%
拉法·卢兹
<1%
布斯内洛上校
<1%
费利佩·库里
<1%
Luizinho医生
<1%
爱德华多·帕祖埃洛
<1%
塔尔西西奥·莫塔
<1%
安东尼·加罗蒂尼奥
<1%
威尔逊·维泽尔
<1%
安德烈·葡萄牙
<1%
林德伯格·法里亚斯
<1%
尼古拉·米奇奥内
<1%
安德烈·塞西利亚诺
<1%
奇科·马查多
<1%
弗雷德·帕切科
<1%
爱德华多·帕埃斯 81.0%
道格拉斯·鲁阿斯 19.6%
拉法·卢兹 <1%
布斯内洛上校 <1%
$492,805 交易量
$492,805 交易量
2026-10-04
爱德华多·帕埃斯
$81,787 交易量
81%
道格拉斯·鲁阿斯
$40,284 交易量
20%
拉法·卢兹
$21,253 交易量
<1%
布斯内洛上校
$21,659 交易量
<1%
费利佩·库里
$36,189 交易量
<1%
Luizinho医生
$18,566 交易量
<1%
爱德华多·帕祖埃洛
$3,826 交易量
<1%
塔尔西西奥·莫塔
$17,339 交易量
<1%
安东尼·加罗蒂尼奥
$29,367 交易量
<1%
威尔逊·维泽尔
$19,853 交易量
<1%
安德烈·葡萄牙
$3,688 交易量
<1%
林德伯格·法里亚斯
$15,600 交易量
<1%
尼古拉·米奇奥内
$5,387 交易量
<1%
安德烈·塞西利亚诺
$19,911 交易量
<1%
奇科·马查多
$16,095 交易量
<1%
弗雷德·帕切科
$142,002 交易量
<1%
The Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Paes (PSD) holds an 81% implied probability in the Rio de Janeiro governor race because multiple September 2026 polls, including Datafolha and Prefab Future, show him leading first-round intentions at 37–43% with double-digit margins over Douglas Ruas (PL) at 19–25% and Anthony Garotinho (Republicanos) near 9–10%. His advantage stems from high name recognition as a four-time former Rio mayor, endorsements from President Lula, and consistent leads across voter segments in both first- and second-round simulations. Ruas has narrowed the gap slightly since August through PL alignment and evangelical support, yet remains well behind in head-to-head matchups. Other registered candidates register below 3% and face structural barriers to reaching the runoff on October 25. Traders' pricing aligns with these polling trends and the absence of major late disruptions ahead of the October 4 first round.
The Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市场开放时间： Jun 9, 2026, 10:22 PM ET
交易量
$492,805结束日期
2026-10-05市场开放时间
Jun 9, 2026, 10:22 PM ETThe Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Paes (PSD) holds an 81% implied probability in the Rio de Janeiro governor race because multiple September 2026 polls, including Datafolha and Prefab Future, show him leading first-round intentions at 37–43% with double-digit margins over Douglas Ruas (PL) at 19–25% and Anthony Garotinho (Republicanos) near 9–10%. His advantage stems from high name recognition as a four-time former Rio mayor, endorsements from President Lula, and consistent leads across voter segments in both first- and second-round simulations. Ruas has narrowed the gap slightly since August through PL alignment and evangelical support, yet remains well behind in head-to-head matchups. Other registered candidates register below 3% and face structural barriers to reaching the runoff on October 25. Traders' pricing aligns with these polling trends and the absence of major late disruptions ahead of the October 4 first round.
The Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$492,805结束日期
2026-10-05市场开放时间
Jun 9, 2026, 10:22 PM ETEduardo Paes (PSD) holds an 81% implied probability in the Rio de Janeiro governor race because multiple September 2026 polls, including Datafolha and Prefab Future, show him leading first-round intentions at 37–43% with double-digit margins over Douglas Ruas (PL) at 19–25% and Anthony Garotinho (Republicanos) near 9–10%. His advantage stems from high name recognition as a four-time former Rio mayor, endorsements from President Lula, and consistent leads across voter segments in both first- and second-round simulations. Ruas has narrowed the gap slightly since August through PL alignment and evangelical support, yet remains well behind in head-to-head matchups. Other registered candidates register below 3% and face structural barriers to reaching the runoff on October 25. Traders' pricing aligns with these polling trends and the absence of major late disruptions ahead of the October 4 first round.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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