Recent polling aggregates place incumbent President Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a technical tie or narrow lead for the October 4 first round, with Lula typically at 38-44% and Flávio at 34-42% across Datafolha, AtlasIntel, and PoderData surveys from mid-September. This positioning drives trader consensus toward margins under 5% for either candidate, as the race remains within typical margins of error and no frontrunner has consolidated a decisive advantage. Lula's incumbency and reelection bid contrast with Flávio's consolidation of the Liberal Party base following his father's ineligibility, while minor candidates like Augusto Cury and Ronaldo Caiado fragment the remainder. Late-campaign dynamics, including regional security debates and candidate registration validation, have sustained the competitive equilibrium reflected in current implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于卢拉·达席尔瓦 <5% 51%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 <5% 30.3%
卢拉·达席尔瓦5-10% 12%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 5-10% 8.3%
$531,584 交易量
$531,584 交易量
2026-10-03
卢拉·达席尔瓦15%+
1%
卢拉·达席尔瓦 10-15%
2%
卢拉·达席尔瓦5-10%
12%
卢拉·达席尔瓦 <5%
51%
弗拉维奥·博索纳罗10%+
1%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 5-10%
8%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 <5%
30%
雷南·桑托斯胜利
<1%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯胜利
<1%
拉蒂尼奥·儒尼奥尔胜利
<1%
其他
<1%
卢拉·达席尔瓦 <5% 51%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 <5% 30.3%
卢拉·达席尔瓦5-10% 12%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 5-10% 8.3%
$531,584 交易量
$531,584 交易量
2026-10-03
卢拉·达席尔瓦15%+
$22,123 交易量
1%
卢拉·达席尔瓦 10-15%
$49,894 交易量
2%
卢拉·达席尔瓦5-10%
$52,527 交易量
12%
卢拉·达席尔瓦 <5%
$56,137 交易量
51%
弗拉维奥·博索纳罗10%+
$29,343 交易量
1%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 5-10%
$30,110 交易量
8%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 <5%
$38,052 交易量
30%
雷南·桑托斯胜利
$220,642 交易量
<1%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯胜利
$10,653 交易量
<1%
拉蒂尼奥·儒尼奥尔胜利
$10,076 交易量
<1%
其他
$12,026 交易量
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling aggregates place incumbent President Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a technical tie or narrow lead for the October 4 first round, with Lula typically at 38-44% and Flávio at 34-42% across Datafolha, AtlasIntel, and PoderData surveys from mid-September. This positioning drives trader consensus toward margins under 5% for either candidate, as the race remains within typical margins of error and no frontrunner has consolidated a decisive advantage. Lula's incumbency and reelection bid contrast with Flávio's consolidation of the Liberal Party base following his father's ineligibility, while minor candidates like Augusto Cury and Ronaldo Caiado fragment the remainder. Late-campaign dynamics, including regional security debates and candidate registration validation, have sustained the competitive equilibrium reflected in current implied probabilities.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市场开放时间： Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
交易量
$531,584结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETA presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling aggregates place incumbent President Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a technical tie or narrow lead for the October 4 first round, with Lula typically at 38-44% and Flávio at 34-42% across Datafolha, AtlasIntel, and PoderData surveys from mid-September. This positioning drives trader consensus toward margins under 5% for either candidate, as the race remains within typical margins of error and no frontrunner has consolidated a decisive advantage. Lula's incumbency and reelection bid contrast with Flávio's consolidation of the Liberal Party base following his father's ineligibility, while minor candidates like Augusto Cury and Ronaldo Caiado fragment the remainder. Late-campaign dynamics, including regional security debates and candidate registration validation, have sustained the competitive equilibrium reflected in current implied probabilities.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$531,584结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETRecent polling aggregates place incumbent President Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a technical tie or narrow lead for the October 4 first round, with Lula typically at 38-44% and Flávio at 34-42% across Datafolha, AtlasIntel, and PoderData surveys from mid-September. This positioning drives trader consensus toward margins under 5% for either candidate, as the race remains within typical margins of error and no frontrunner has consolidated a decisive advantage. Lula's incumbency and reelection bid contrast with Flávio's consolidation of the Liberal Party base following his father's ineligibility, while minor candidates like Augusto Cury and Ronaldo Caiado fragment the remainder. Late-campaign dynamics, including regional security debates and candidate registration validation, have sustained the competitive equilibrium reflected in current implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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