Incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Flávio Bolsonaro in recent first-round polling averages around 40-42% to 28-34%, with other candidates including Renan Santos trailing far behind, consistent with market pricing that clusters heavily on a narrow Lula victory. Persistent polarization between Workers’ Party supporters and right-wing voters, combined with Flávio’s recent association with a banker-linked film funding controversy, has kept the contest close while lifting undecided shares. Economic performance, crime concerns, and Jair Bolsonaro’s legal status continue to shape voter blocs, with the October 4 first round still months away and room for further shifts from campaign events or additional disclosures.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva 5-10% 33%
Lula da Silva <5% 26%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 18.0%
Lula da Silva 15%+ 8.0%
$262,491 交易量
$262,491 交易量
2026-10-04
Lula da Silva 15%+
8%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
18%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
33%
Lula da Silva <5%
26%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
1%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
7%
Renan Santos Victory
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
<1%
Other
3%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 33%
Lula da Silva <5% 26%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 18.0%
Lula da Silva 15%+ 8.0%
$262,491 交易量
$262,491 交易量
2026-10-04
Lula da Silva 15%+
$6,573 交易量
8%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$7,007 交易量
18%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$9,084 交易量
33%
Lula da Silva <5%
$13,083 交易量
26%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$2,726 交易量
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$2,726 交易量
1%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$6,713 交易量
7%
Renan Santos Victory
$207,990 交易量
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
$1,886 交易量
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
$2,137 交易量
<1%
Other
$2,565 交易量
3%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Flávio Bolsonaro in recent first-round polling averages around 40-42% to 28-34%, with other candidates including Renan Santos trailing far behind, consistent with market pricing that clusters heavily on a narrow Lula victory. Persistent polarization between Workers’ Party supporters and right-wing voters, combined with Flávio’s recent association with a banker-linked film funding controversy, has kept the contest close while lifting undecided shares. Economic performance, crime concerns, and Jair Bolsonaro’s legal status continue to shape voter blocs, with the October 4 first round still months away and room for further shifts from campaign events or additional disclosures.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市场开放时间： Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
交易量
$262,491结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Flávio Bolsonaro in recent first-round polling averages around 40-42% to 28-34%, with other candidates including Renan Santos trailing far behind, consistent with market pricing that clusters heavily on a narrow Lula victory. Persistent polarization between Workers’ Party supporters and right-wing voters, combined with Flávio’s recent association with a banker-linked film funding controversy, has kept the contest close while lifting undecided shares. Economic performance, crime concerns, and Jair Bolsonaro’s legal status continue to shape voter blocs, with the October 4 first round still months away and room for further shifts from campaign events or additional disclosures.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$262,491结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Flávio Bolsonaro in recent first-round polling averages around 40-42% to 28-34%, with other candidates including Renan Santos trailing far behind, consistent with market pricing that clusters heavily on a narrow Lula victory. Persistent polarization between Workers’ Party supporters and right-wing voters, combined with Flávio’s recent association with a banker-linked film funding controversy, has kept the contest close while lifting undecided shares. Economic performance, crime concerns, and Jair Bolsonaro’s legal status continue to shape voter blocs, with the October 4 first round still months away and room for further shifts from campaign events or additional disclosures.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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