Recent polling averages place Renan Santos of the small Missão party in the low single digits for Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, consistent with trader pricing that assigns the highest probability to a 2-4% share. His support draws mainly from younger voters via social media but remains constrained by limited name recognition, competition from other centre-right and conservative candidates, and the dominance of Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. The TSE’s unanimous validation of his candidacy on September 10 removed a prior legal hurdle, while his September 18 Porto Alegre rally criticizing financial markets and calling for the jailing of an XP executive highlighted an anti-establishment stance that has not translated into broader gains. Upcoming debates and the final campaign weeks offer the main remaining opportunities to shift these levels.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2-4% 44%
4-6% 26%
低于2% 18%
8%及以上 11%
$61,425 交易量
$61,425 交易量
2026-10-04
低于2%
18%
2-4%
44%
4-6%
26%
6-8%
6%
8%及以上
11%
2-4% 44%
4-6% 26%
低于2% 18%
8%及以上 11%
$61,425 交易量
$61,425 交易量
2026-10-04
低于2%
$803 交易量
18%
2-4%
$1,872 交易量
44%
4-6%
$2,362 交易量
26%
6-8%
$560 交易量
6%
8%及以上
$55,828 交易量
11%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling averages place Renan Santos of the small Missão party in the low single digits for Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, consistent with trader pricing that assigns the highest probability to a 2-4% share. His support draws mainly from younger voters via social media but remains constrained by limited name recognition, competition from other centre-right and conservative candidates, and the dominance of Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. The TSE’s unanimous validation of his candidacy on September 10 removed a prior legal hurdle, while his September 18 Porto Alegre rally criticizing financial markets and calling for the jailing of an XP executive highlighted an anti-establishment stance that has not translated into broader gains. Upcoming debates and the final campaign weeks offer the main remaining opportunities to shift these levels.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市场开放时间： Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ET
交易量
$61,425结束日期
2026-10-05市场开放时间
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ETA presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling averages place Renan Santos of the small Missão party in the low single digits for Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, consistent with trader pricing that assigns the highest probability to a 2-4% share. His support draws mainly from younger voters via social media but remains constrained by limited name recognition, competition from other centre-right and conservative candidates, and the dominance of Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. The TSE’s unanimous validation of his candidacy on September 10 removed a prior legal hurdle, while his September 18 Porto Alegre rally criticizing financial markets and calling for the jailing of an XP executive highlighted an anti-establishment stance that has not translated into broader gains. Upcoming debates and the final campaign weeks offer the main remaining opportunities to shift these levels.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$61,425结束日期
2026-10-05市场开放时间
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ETRecent polling averages place Renan Santos of the small Missão party in the low single digits for Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, consistent with trader pricing that assigns the highest probability to a 2-4% share. His support draws mainly from younger voters via social media but remains constrained by limited name recognition, competition from other centre-right and conservative candidates, and the dominance of Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. The TSE’s unanimous validation of his candidacy on September 10 removed a prior legal hurdle, while his September 18 Porto Alegre rally criticizing financial markets and calling for the jailing of an XP executive highlighted an anti-establishment stance that has not translated into broader gains. Upcoming debates and the final campaign weeks offer the main remaining opportunities to shift these levels.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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