Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential election features a fragmented field dominated by incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeking a fourth term and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, who received his imprisoned father's endorsement last December to carry the Liberal Party banner. Recent Quaest and Datafolha polls from May show the two statistically tied in simulated runoffs at around 42-45 percent each, with Lula holding a modest first-round edge near 39 percent while Flávio trails at 33 percent amid support from right-wing governors. Economic pressures and Lula's approval ratings near 44-47 percent have tightened the contest, raising the likelihood that these frontrunners advance to a October 25 runoff unless endorsements from candidates like Ronaldo Caiado or Romeu Zema consolidate votes beforehand.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$321,021 交易量
2026-10-04
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦
84%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗
72%
费尔南多·阿达
8%
米歇尔·博索纳罗
4%
雅伊尔·博索纳罗
3%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯
3%
$321,021 交易量
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦
$135,083 交易量
84%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗
$20,597 交易量
72%
费尔南多·阿达
$51,472 交易量
8%
米歇尔·博索纳罗
$26,646 交易量
4%
雅伊尔·博索纳罗
$11,175 交易量
3%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯
$76,048 交易量
3%
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential election features a fragmented field dominated by incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeking a fourth term and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, who received his imprisoned father's endorsement last December to carry the Liberal Party banner. Recent Quaest and Datafolha polls from May show the two statistically tied in simulated runoffs at around 42-45 percent each, with Lula holding a modest first-round edge near 39 percent while Flávio trails at 33 percent amid support from right-wing governors. Economic pressures and Lula's approval ratings near 44-47 percent have tightened the contest, raising the likelihood that these frontrunners advance to a October 25 runoff unless endorsements from candidates like Ronaldo Caiado or Romeu Zema consolidate votes beforehand.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市场开放时间： Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET
交易量
$321,021结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential election features a fragmented field dominated by incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeking a fourth term and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, who received his imprisoned father's endorsement last December to carry the Liberal Party banner. Recent Quaest and Datafolha polls from May show the two statistically tied in simulated runoffs at around 42-45 percent each, with Lula holding a modest first-round edge near 39 percent while Flávio trails at 33 percent amid support from right-wing governors. Economic pressures and Lula's approval ratings near 44-47 percent have tightened the contest, raising the likelihood that these frontrunners advance to a October 25 runoff unless endorsements from candidates like Ronaldo Caiado or Romeu Zema consolidate votes beforehand.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$321,021结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential election features a fragmented field dominated by incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeking a fourth term and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, who received his imprisoned father's endorsement last December to carry the Liberal Party banner. Recent Quaest and Datafolha polls from May show the two statistically tied in simulated runoffs at around 42-45 percent each, with Lula holding a modest first-round edge near 39 percent while Flávio trails at 33 percent amid support from right-wing governors. Economic pressures and Lula's approval ratings near 44-47 percent have tightened the contest, raising the likelihood that these frontrunners advance to a October 25 runoff unless endorsements from candidates like Ronaldo Caiado or Romeu Zema consolidate votes beforehand.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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