**Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro currently lead polling for Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first-round presidential vote, positioning them as the frontrunners most likely to advance to the October 25 runoff.** Lula, the incumbent PT president seeking a fourth term with Geraldo Alckmin as running mate, holds roughly 40-43% in recent surveys, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the PL trails in the low-to-mid 30s. Other registered candidates, including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos, remain in single digits and show little momentum. Official campaigning began on August 16 after the candidacy registration deadline, with the first televised debate scheduled for August 23. Recent hypothetical runoff matchups show Lula holding narrow edges that have tightened amid economic and security concerns, though the fragmented opposition field continues to favor a two-candidate second round. Trader consensus on advancement reflects these stable polling patterns and the structural barriers facing lower-polling contenders.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$475,220 交易量
2026-10-04
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦
97%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗
90%
雷南·桑托斯
7%
罗梅乌·泽马
2%
米歇尔·博索纳罗
1%
罗纳尔多·卡亚多
1%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯
1%
雅伊尔·博索纳罗
1%
费尔南多·阿达
1%
$475,220 交易量
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦
$218,672 交易量
97%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗
$47,095 交易量
90%
雷南·桑托斯
$11,342 交易量
7%
罗梅乌·泽马
$610 交易量
2%
米歇尔·博索纳罗
$34,442 交易量
1%
罗纳尔多·卡亚多
$698 交易量
1%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯
$81,768 交易量
1%
雅伊尔·博索纳罗
$15,629 交易量
1%
费尔南多·阿达
$64,965 交易量
1%
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro currently lead polling for Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first-round presidential vote, positioning them as the frontrunners most likely to advance to the October 25 runoff.** Lula, the incumbent PT president seeking a fourth term with Geraldo Alckmin as running mate, holds roughly 40-43% in recent surveys, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the PL trails in the low-to-mid 30s. Other registered candidates, including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos, remain in single digits and show little momentum. Official campaigning began on August 16 after the candidacy registration deadline, with the first televised debate scheduled for August 23. Recent hypothetical runoff matchups show Lula holding narrow edges that have tightened amid economic and security concerns, though the fragmented opposition field continues to favor a two-candidate second round. Trader consensus on advancement reflects these stable polling patterns and the structural barriers facing lower-polling contenders.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市场开放时间： Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET
交易量
$475,220结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro currently lead polling for Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first-round presidential vote, positioning them as the frontrunners most likely to advance to the October 25 runoff.** Lula, the incumbent PT president seeking a fourth term with Geraldo Alckmin as running mate, holds roughly 40-43% in recent surveys, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the PL trails in the low-to-mid 30s. Other registered candidates, including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos, remain in single digits and show little momentum. Official campaigning began on August 16 after the candidacy registration deadline, with the first televised debate scheduled for August 23. Recent hypothetical runoff matchups show Lula holding narrow edges that have tightened amid economic and security concerns, though the fragmented opposition field continues to favor a two-candidate second round. Trader consensus on advancement reflects these stable polling patterns and the structural barriers facing lower-polling contenders.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$475,220结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro currently lead polling for Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first-round presidential vote, positioning them as the frontrunners most likely to advance to the October 25 runoff.** Lula, the incumbent PT president seeking a fourth term with Geraldo Alckmin as running mate, holds roughly 40-43% in recent surveys, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the PL trails in the low-to-mid 30s. Other registered candidates, including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos, remain in single digits and show little momentum. Official campaigning began on August 16 after the candidacy registration deadline, with the first televised debate scheduled for August 23. Recent hypothetical runoff matchups show Lula holding narrow edges that have tightened amid economic and security concerns, though the fragmented opposition field continues to favor a two-candidate second round. Trader consensus on advancement reflects these stable polling patterns and the structural barriers facing lower-polling contenders.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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