The Federal District Senate race for the two seats up in October 2026 remains highly fragmented, with trader consensus reflecting a tight contest among more than a dozen declared candidates. Recent polling shows no clear frontrunner, as names including Michelle Bolsonaro (PL), Leila Barros (PDT), Bia Kicis (PL), Erika Kokay (PT), and Tiago Tarsis cluster in the low-to-mid twenties. Incumbency advantages for sitting senators, PL organizational strength tied to the broader Bolsonaro-aligned bloc, and late-stage party negotiations continue to shape positioning. The first-past-the-post format for each seat, combined with voters casting two ballots, sustains elevated implied probabilities for multiple outcomes until registration closes and final slates solidify. Upcoming debates or major endorsements in the next month could shift momentum among the top contenders.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于蒂亚戈 28%
吉列尔梅·阿莫林教授 23%
塞巴斯蒂昂·科埃略 23%
扎纳塔 23%
最新
最新
2026-10-04
蒂亚戈
28%
吉列尔梅·阿莫林教授
23%
塞巴斯蒂昂·科埃略
23%
扎纳塔
23%
马利
22%
古托·费利西奥·多斯·桑托斯
21%
Avenir Rosa
21%
比阿·基西斯
21%
Leila do Vôlei
21%
大卫·霍恩
21%
埃丽卡·科卡伊
21%
罗纳尔多·丰塞卡
21%
米歇尔·博尔索纳罗
18%
蒂亚戈 28%
吉列尔梅·阿莫林教授 23%
塞巴斯蒂昂·科埃略 23%
扎纳塔 23%
最新
最新
2026-10-04
蒂亚戈
$0 交易量
28%
吉列尔梅·阿莫林教授
$0 交易量
23%
塞巴斯蒂昂·科埃略
$0 交易量
23%
扎纳塔
$0 交易量
23%
马利
$0 交易量
22%
古托·费利西奥·多斯·桑托斯
$0 交易量
21%
Avenir Rosa
$0 交易量
21%
比阿·基西斯
$0 交易量
21%
Leila do Vôlei
$0 交易量
21%
大卫·霍恩
$0 交易量
21%
埃丽卡·科卡伊
$0 交易量
21%
罗纳尔多·丰塞卡
$0 交易量
21%
米歇尔·博尔索纳罗
$0 交易量
18%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Federal District Senate race for the two seats up in October 2026 remains highly fragmented, with trader consensus reflecting a tight contest among more than a dozen declared candidates. Recent polling shows no clear frontrunner, as names including Michelle Bolsonaro (PL), Leila Barros (PDT), Bia Kicis (PL), Erika Kokay (PT), and Tiago Tarsis cluster in the low-to-mid twenties. Incumbency advantages for sitting senators, PL organizational strength tied to the broader Bolsonaro-aligned bloc, and late-stage party negotiations continue to shape positioning. The first-past-the-post format for each seat, combined with voters casting two ballots, sustains elevated implied probabilities for multiple outcomes until registration closes and final slates solidify. Upcoming debates or major endorsements in the next month could shift momentum among the top contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市场开放时间： Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Federal District Senate race for the two seats up in October 2026 remains highly fragmented, with trader consensus reflecting a tight contest among more than a dozen declared candidates. Recent polling shows no clear frontrunner, as names including Michelle Bolsonaro (PL), Leila Barros (PDT), Bia Kicis (PL), Erika Kokay (PT), and Tiago Tarsis cluster in the low-to-mid twenties. Incumbency advantages for sitting senators, PL organizational strength tied to the broader Bolsonaro-aligned bloc, and late-stage party negotiations continue to shape positioning. The first-past-the-post format for each seat, combined with voters casting two ballots, sustains elevated implied probabilities for multiple outcomes until registration closes and final slates solidify. Upcoming debates or major endorsements in the next month could shift momentum among the top contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Federal District Senate race for the two seats up in October 2026 remains highly fragmented, with trader consensus reflecting a tight contest among more than a dozen declared candidates. Recent polling shows no clear frontrunner, as names including Michelle Bolsonaro (PL), Leila Barros (PDT), Bia Kicis (PL), Erika Kokay (PT), and Tiago Tarsis cluster in the low-to-mid twenties. Incumbency advantages for sitting senators, PL organizational strength tied to the broader Bolsonaro-aligned bloc, and late-stage party negotiations continue to shape positioning. The first-past-the-post format for each seat, combined with voters casting two ballots, sustains elevated implied probabilities for multiple outcomes until registration closes and final slates solidify. Upcoming debates or major endorsements in the next month could shift momentum among the top contenders.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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