São Paulo’s Senate race for two seats on October 4 remains fragmented after candidate registration closed in mid-August, with recent Ideia/ACSP polling showing Simone Tebet, Marina Silva, Guilherme Derrite, André do Prado, and Ricardo Salles clustered in the top tier and no candidate exceeding 27 percent. The single-round, two-vote system amplifies this dispersion, as voters split preferences across established figures from MDB, REDE, PP, PL, and NOVO alongside lesser-known names. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects this uncertainty, with leading probabilities clustered near 50 percent and only modest separation for Silva and a handful of others. Late-campaign alliances, turnout among urban and interior voters, and any last-minute party coordination could consolidate support and shift the ordering before election day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Marina Silva 45%
Maíra de Souza 44%
Petter Maahs 43%
Ednelson Cesaretti 42%
最新
最新
2026-10-04
Marina Silva
45%
Maíra de Souza
44%
Petter Maahs
43%
Ednelson Cesaretti
42%
Simone Tebet
41%
Soninha Francine
41%
Geraldo Rufino
38%
Salles
37%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
19%
André do Prado
19%
William Teixeira
8%
Marcio Alves
8%
Weller Gonçalves
45%
Guilherme Derrite
43%
Marina Silva 45%
Maíra de Souza 44%
Petter Maahs 43%
Ednelson Cesaretti 42%
最新
最新
2026-10-04
Marina Silva
$20 交易量
45%
Maíra de Souza
$20 交易量
44%
Petter Maahs
$20 交易量
43%
Ednelson Cesaretti
$20 交易量
42%
Simone Tebet
$20 交易量
41%
Soninha Francine
$20 交易量
41%
Geraldo Rufino
$20 交易量
38%
Salles
$20 交易量
37%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
$20 交易量
19%
André do Prado
$20 交易量
19%
William Teixeira
$40 交易量
8%
Marcio Alves
$40 交易量
8%
Weller Gonçalves
$20 交易量
45%
Guilherme Derrite
$40 交易量
43%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).São Paulo’s Senate race for two seats on October 4 remains fragmented after candidate registration closed in mid-August, with recent Ideia/ACSP polling showing Simone Tebet, Marina Silva, Guilherme Derrite, André do Prado, and Ricardo Salles clustered in the top tier and no candidate exceeding 27 percent. The single-round, two-vote system amplifies this dispersion, as voters split preferences across established figures from MDB, REDE, PP, PL, and NOVO alongside lesser-known names. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects this uncertainty, with leading probabilities clustered near 50 percent and only modest separation for Silva and a handful of others. Late-campaign alliances, turnout among urban and interior voters, and any last-minute party coordination could consolidate support and shift the ordering before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市场开放时间： Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
交易量
$340结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).São Paulo’s Senate race for two seats on October 4 remains fragmented after candidate registration closed in mid-August, with recent Ideia/ACSP polling showing Simone Tebet, Marina Silva, Guilherme Derrite, André do Prado, and Ricardo Salles clustered in the top tier and no candidate exceeding 27 percent. The single-round, two-vote system amplifies this dispersion, as voters split preferences across established figures from MDB, REDE, PP, PL, and NOVO alongside lesser-known names. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects this uncertainty, with leading probabilities clustered near 50 percent and only modest separation for Silva and a handful of others. Late-campaign alliances, turnout among urban and interior voters, and any last-minute party coordination could consolidate support and shift the ordering before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$340结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...São Paulo’s Senate race for two seats on October 4 remains fragmented after candidate registration closed in mid-August, with recent Ideia/ACSP polling showing Simone Tebet, Marina Silva, Guilherme Derrite, André do Prado, and Ricardo Salles clustered in the top tier and no candidate exceeding 27 percent. The single-round, two-vote system amplifies this dispersion, as voters split preferences across established figures from MDB, REDE, PP, PL, and NOVO alongside lesser-known names. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects this uncertainty, with leading probabilities clustered near 50 percent and only modest separation for Silva and a handful of others. Late-campaign alliances, turnout among urban and interior voters, and any last-minute party coordination could consolidate support and shift the ordering before election day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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