Jair Bolsonaro’s conviction and imprisonment on coup-related charges have consolidated right-wing support behind his endorsed son, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, making him the clear frontrunner for second place in the October 4 first round. Recent Quaest and Datafolha surveys show Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party leading with 38–42 percent while Flávio trails at 31–33 percent, well ahead of fragmented conservative rivals such as Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado who remain in single digits. Earlier 2026 setbacks for Flávio, including leaked audio recordings and a resolved family dispute with Michelle Bolsonaro, have not altered this polling hierarchy. Traders view the Liberal Party’s unified backing and the two-round system’s dynamics as locking in Flávio’s position absent major late shifts before election day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 86%
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦 6.9%
雷南·桑托斯 5.4%
卡米洛·桑塔纳 <1%
$4,810,404 交易量
$4,810,404 交易量
2026-10-04
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗
86%
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦
7%
雷南·桑托斯
5%
卡米洛·桑塔纳
<1%
罗纳尔多·卡亚多
<1%
费尔南多·哈达
<1%
米歇尔·博索纳罗
<1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
爱德华多·博尔索纳罗
<1%
奥尔多·雷贝洛
<1%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯
<1%
雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗
<1%
拉蒂尼奥·儒尼奥尔
<1%
赫拉尔多·阿尔克明
<1%
爱德华多·莱特
<1%
埃尔德·巴尔巴略
<1%
特雷莎·克里斯蒂娜
<1%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 86%
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦 6.9%
雷南·桑托斯 5.4%
卡米洛·桑塔纳 <1%
$4,810,404 交易量
$4,810,404 交易量
2026-10-04
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗
$279,811 交易量
86%
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦
$262,322 交易量
7%
雷南·桑托斯
$1,115,470 交易量
5%
卡米洛·桑塔纳
$120,835 交易量
<1%
罗纳尔多·卡亚多
$363,350 交易量
<1%
费尔南多·哈达
$712,252 交易量
<1%
米歇尔·博索纳罗
$144,426 交易量
<1%
Romeu Zema
$311,687 交易量
<1%
爱德华多·博尔索纳罗
$105,664 交易量
<1%
奥尔多·雷贝洛
$70,228 交易量
<1%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯
$207,106 交易量
<1%
雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗
$138,456 交易量
<1%
拉蒂尼奥·儒尼奥尔
$681,218 交易量
<1%
赫拉尔多·阿尔克明
$162,025 交易量
<1%
爱德华多·莱特
$79,078 交易量
<1%
埃尔德·巴尔巴略
$20,972 交易量
<1%
特雷莎·克里斯蒂娜
$35,504 交易量
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Jair Bolsonaro’s conviction and imprisonment on coup-related charges have consolidated right-wing support behind his endorsed son, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, making him the clear frontrunner for second place in the October 4 first round. Recent Quaest and Datafolha surveys show Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party leading with 38–42 percent while Flávio trails at 31–33 percent, well ahead of fragmented conservative rivals such as Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado who remain in single digits. Earlier 2026 setbacks for Flávio, including leaked audio recordings and a resolved family dispute with Michelle Bolsonaro, have not altered this polling hierarchy. Traders view the Liberal Party’s unified backing and the two-round system’s dynamics as locking in Flávio’s position absent major late shifts before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市场开放时间： Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
交易量
$4,810,404结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Jair Bolsonaro’s conviction and imprisonment on coup-related charges have consolidated right-wing support behind his endorsed son, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, making him the clear frontrunner for second place in the October 4 first round. Recent Quaest and Datafolha surveys show Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party leading with 38–42 percent while Flávio trails at 31–33 percent, well ahead of fragmented conservative rivals such as Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado who remain in single digits. Earlier 2026 setbacks for Flávio, including leaked audio recordings and a resolved family dispute with Michelle Bolsonaro, have not altered this polling hierarchy. Traders view the Liberal Party’s unified backing and the two-round system’s dynamics as locking in Flávio’s position absent major late shifts before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$4,810,404结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Jair Bolsonaro’s conviction and imprisonment on coup-related charges have consolidated right-wing support behind his endorsed son, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, making him the clear frontrunner for second place in the October 4 first round. Recent Quaest and Datafolha surveys show Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party leading with 38–42 percent while Flávio trails at 31–33 percent, well ahead of fragmented conservative rivals such as Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado who remain in single digits. Earlier 2026 setbacks for Flávio, including leaked audio recordings and a resolved family dispute with Michelle Bolsonaro, have not altered this polling hierarchy. Traders view the Liberal Party’s unified backing and the two-round system’s dynamics as locking in Flávio’s position absent major late shifts before election day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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