Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in trader pricing for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential contest because recent polling consistently places him well ahead of every other non-Lula contender. In the latest Quaest survey, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads with 39 percent while Flávio registers 33 percent, followed by Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema at 4 percent each and Renan Santos at 2 percent. Flávio’s position stems from Jair Bolsonaro’s December endorsement, which consolidated Liberal Party and broader right-wing support behind the senator. The remainder of the field remains fragmented, with no other declared candidate exceeding single digits in first-round tests. Upcoming economic data releases and potential governor endorsements could still shift vote shares before October, but current evidence points to a stable ordering behind the incumbent.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 61%
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦 15%
雷南·桑托斯 6.3%
Romeu Zema 5.5%
$3,522,234 交易量
$3,522,234 交易量
2026-10-04
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗
61%
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦
15%
雷南·桑托斯
6%
Romeu Zema
6%
米歇尔·博索纳罗
5%
费尔南多·哈达
3%
卡米洛·桑塔纳
2%
特雷莎·克里斯蒂娜
1%
罗纳尔多·卡亚多
1%
赫拉尔多·阿尔克明
1%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯
<1%
拉蒂尼奥·儒尼奥尔
<1%
奥尔多·雷贝洛
<1%
爱德华多·博尔索纳罗
<1%
埃尔德·巴尔巴略
<1%
雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗
<1%
爱德华多·莱特
<1%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 61%
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦 15%
雷南·桑托斯 6.3%
Romeu Zema 5.5%
$3,522,234 交易量
$3,522,234 交易量
2026-10-04
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗
$56,378 交易量
61%
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦
$67,153 交易量
15%
雷南·桑托斯
$994,929 交易量
6%
Romeu Zema
$256,353 交易量
6%
米歇尔·博索纳罗
$72,825 交易量
5%
费尔南多·哈达
$651,213 交易量
3%
卡米洛·桑塔纳
$56,008 交易量
2%
特雷莎·克里斯蒂娜
$2,848 交易量
1%
罗纳尔多·卡亚多
$289,157 交易量
1%
赫拉尔多·阿尔克明
$123,364 交易量
1%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯
$111,040 交易量
<1%
拉蒂尼奥·儒尼奥尔
$642,631 交易量
<1%
奥尔多·雷贝洛
$29,825 交易量
<1%
爱德华多·博尔索纳罗
$48,401 交易量
<1%
埃尔德·巴尔巴略
$2,246 交易量
<1%
雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗
$77,363 交易量
<1%
爱德华多·莱特
$40,500 交易量
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in trader pricing for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential contest because recent polling consistently places him well ahead of every other non-Lula contender. In the latest Quaest survey, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads with 39 percent while Flávio registers 33 percent, followed by Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema at 4 percent each and Renan Santos at 2 percent. Flávio’s position stems from Jair Bolsonaro’s December endorsement, which consolidated Liberal Party and broader right-wing support behind the senator. The remainder of the field remains fragmented, with no other declared candidate exceeding single digits in first-round tests. Upcoming economic data releases and potential governor endorsements could still shift vote shares before October, but current evidence points to a stable ordering behind the incumbent.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市场开放时间： Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
交易量
$3,522,234结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in trader pricing for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential contest because recent polling consistently places him well ahead of every other non-Lula contender. In the latest Quaest survey, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads with 39 percent while Flávio registers 33 percent, followed by Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema at 4 percent each and Renan Santos at 2 percent. Flávio’s position stems from Jair Bolsonaro’s December endorsement, which consolidated Liberal Party and broader right-wing support behind the senator. The remainder of the field remains fragmented, with no other declared candidate exceeding single digits in first-round tests. Upcoming economic data releases and potential governor endorsements could still shift vote shares before October, but current evidence points to a stable ordering behind the incumbent.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$3,522,234结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in trader pricing for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential contest because recent polling consistently places him well ahead of every other non-Lula contender. In the latest Quaest survey, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads with 39 percent while Flávio registers 33 percent, followed by Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema at 4 percent each and Renan Santos at 2 percent. Flávio’s position stems from Jair Bolsonaro’s December endorsement, which consolidated Liberal Party and broader right-wing support behind the senator. The remainder of the field remains fragmented, with no other declared candidate exceeding single digits in first-round tests. Upcoming economic data releases and potential governor endorsements could still shift vote shares before October, but current evidence points to a stable ordering behind the incumbent.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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