Flavio Bolsonaro’s vice-presidential selection remains tightly contested in trader pricing because centrist parties largely declined to join his Liberal Party ticket, forcing an internal choice after weeks of negotiations. The August 5 announcement naming federal deputy Alfredo Gaspar as running mate for the October presidential contest against incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has lifted Gaspar’s implied probability to 54 percent. Earlier speculation around figures such as Tereza Cristina, Daniella Marques, and others from allied parties failed to produce broader endorsements or additional television time. With the race still open to late shifts from party defections or coalition adjustments, traders continue to assign comparable odds to multiple alternatives until formal confirmation and ballot finalization.