Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor, dominates trader pricing for the October 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial contest because multiple 2026 polls show him leading potential opponents by double digits in first-round scenarios and winning all tested runoffs. Recent Datafolha, Vox Brasil, and Paraná Pesquisas surveys place him at 44–49% against Fernando Haddad (PT) in the 31–36% range, with no other declared or speculated candidate reaching double digits. His decision to seek re-election rather than the presidency has clarified the field, while approval ratings near 64% reinforce incumbency advantages in a state where governors historically secure second terms. Kim Kataguiri registers modest support but trails far behind, and fringe names such as Márcio França and Erika Hilton remain negligible in surveys. No major scandals or shifts have altered the standing since early-year polling.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Tarcísio de Freitas 90%
Fernando Haddad 7.0%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
Márcio França <1%
$171,794 交易量
$171,794 交易量
2026-10-04
Tarcísio de Freitas
90%
Fernando Haddad
7%
Kim Kataguiri
<1%
Márcio França
<1%
Erika Hilton
<1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 90%
Fernando Haddad 7.0%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
Márcio França <1%
$171,794 交易量
$171,794 交易量
2026-10-04
Tarcísio de Freitas
$43,291 交易量
90%
Fernando Haddad
$34,814 交易量
7%
Kim Kataguiri
$70,144 交易量
<1%
Márcio França
$8,864 交易量
<1%
Erika Hilton
$14,682 交易量
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor, dominates trader pricing for the October 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial contest because multiple 2026 polls show him leading potential opponents by double digits in first-round scenarios and winning all tested runoffs. Recent Datafolha, Vox Brasil, and Paraná Pesquisas surveys place him at 44–49% against Fernando Haddad (PT) in the 31–36% range, with no other declared or speculated candidate reaching double digits. His decision to seek re-election rather than the presidency has clarified the field, while approval ratings near 64% reinforce incumbency advantages in a state where governors historically secure second terms. Kim Kataguiri registers modest support but trails far behind, and fringe names such as Márcio França and Erika Hilton remain negligible in surveys. No major scandals or shifts have altered the standing since early-year polling.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市场开放时间： Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
交易量
$171,794结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor, dominates trader pricing for the October 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial contest because multiple 2026 polls show him leading potential opponents by double digits in first-round scenarios and winning all tested runoffs. Recent Datafolha, Vox Brasil, and Paraná Pesquisas surveys place him at 44–49% against Fernando Haddad (PT) in the 31–36% range, with no other declared or speculated candidate reaching double digits. His decision to seek re-election rather than the presidency has clarified the field, while approval ratings near 64% reinforce incumbency advantages in a state where governors historically secure second terms. Kim Kataguiri registers modest support but trails far behind, and fringe names such as Márcio França and Erika Hilton remain negligible in surveys. No major scandals or shifts have altered the standing since early-year polling.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$171,794结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor, dominates trader pricing for the October 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial contest because multiple 2026 polls show him leading potential opponents by double digits in first-round scenarios and winning all tested runoffs. Recent Datafolha, Vox Brasil, and Paraná Pesquisas surveys place him at 44–49% against Fernando Haddad (PT) in the 31–36% range, with no other declared or speculated candidate reaching double digits. His decision to seek re-election rather than the presidency has clarified the field, while approval ratings near 64% reinforce incumbency advantages in a state where governors historically secure second terms. Kim Kataguiri registers modest support but trails far behind, and fringe names such as Márcio França and Erika Hilton remain negligible in surveys. No major scandals or shifts have altered the standing since early-year polling.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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