Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the São Paulo governor race due to his incumbency advantage as the sitting executive and consistent double-digit margins in recent polling against Fernando Haddad, with surveys from late July and early August 2026 placing him at 41-52% support in the first round. Consolidating alliances among center-right and conservative parties, including endorsements from key Bolsonaro-aligned figures, has narrowed the field after other potential challengers withdrew. Haddad, who left his national finance role in March 2026 to enter the contest, trails significantly amid broader left-wing positioning challenges. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors and limited remaining time before the October 4 first round. A major scandal, sharp national economic downturn, or unexpectedly strong debate performance by opposition candidates could still narrow the gap before voting concludes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯 94%
费尔南多·哈达德 4.0%
埃丽卡·希尔顿 <1%
金·卡塔古里 <1%
$279,049 交易量
$279,049 交易量
2026-10-04
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯
94%
费尔南多·哈达德
4%
埃丽卡·希尔顿
1%
金·卡塔古里
<1%
马尔西奥·弗兰萨
<1%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯 94%
费尔南多·哈达德 4.0%
埃丽卡·希尔顿 <1%
金·卡塔古里 <1%
$279,049 交易量
$279,049 交易量
2026-10-04
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯
$123,014 交易量
94%
费尔南多·哈达德
$46,886 交易量
4%
埃丽卡·希尔顿
$22,704 交易量
1%
金·卡塔古里
$75,777 交易量
<1%
马尔西奥·弗兰萨
$10,668 交易量
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the São Paulo governor race due to his incumbency advantage as the sitting executive and consistent double-digit margins in recent polling against Fernando Haddad, with surveys from late July and early August 2026 placing him at 41-52% support in the first round. Consolidating alliances among center-right and conservative parties, including endorsements from key Bolsonaro-aligned figures, has narrowed the field after other potential challengers withdrew. Haddad, who left his national finance role in March 2026 to enter the contest, trails significantly amid broader left-wing positioning challenges. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors and limited remaining time before the October 4 first round. A major scandal, sharp national economic downturn, or unexpectedly strong debate performance by opposition candidates could still narrow the gap before voting concludes.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市场开放时间： Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
交易量
$279,049结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the São Paulo governor race due to his incumbency advantage as the sitting executive and consistent double-digit margins in recent polling against Fernando Haddad, with surveys from late July and early August 2026 placing him at 41-52% support in the first round. Consolidating alliances among center-right and conservative parties, including endorsements from key Bolsonaro-aligned figures, has narrowed the field after other potential challengers withdrew. Haddad, who left his national finance role in March 2026 to enter the contest, trails significantly amid broader left-wing positioning challenges. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors and limited remaining time before the October 4 first round. A major scandal, sharp national economic downturn, or unexpectedly strong debate performance by opposition candidates could still narrow the gap before voting concludes.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$279,049结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the São Paulo governor race due to his incumbency advantage as the sitting executive and consistent double-digit margins in recent polling against Fernando Haddad, with surveys from late July and early August 2026 placing him at 41-52% support in the first round. Consolidating alliances among center-right and conservative parties, including endorsements from key Bolsonaro-aligned figures, has narrowed the field after other potential challengers withdrew. Haddad, who left his national finance role in March 2026 to enter the contest, trails significantly amid broader left-wing positioning challenges. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors and limited remaining time before the October 4 first round. A major scandal, sharp national economic downturn, or unexpectedly strong debate performance by opposition candidates could still narrow the gap before voting concludes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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