Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas commands trader consensus at 82.5% implied probability for re-election on October 4, 2026, driven by late-April polls from Quaest and Paraná Pesquisas showing him leading first-round scenarios 38-48% to Fernando Haddad's 26-33%, with decisive second-round margins of 49-53% to 32-37%. His administration enjoys 54-65% approval ratings amid infrastructure gains, while Haddad faces 58% rejection tied to federal tenure. A May 13 report highlights Lula allies' concerns over polarization potentially yielding Tarcísio a first-round majority above 50%. Kim Kataguiri trails at 4% amid fragmented opposition, underscoring incumbency edge in this pivotal state race.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Tarcísio de Freitas 83%
Fernando Haddad 11.9%
金·卡塔古里 3.8%
Márcio França 1.4%
$21,533 交易量
$21,533 交易量
2026-10-04
Tarcísio de Freitas
83%
Fernando Haddad
12%
金·卡塔古里
4%
Márcio França
1%
Erika Hilton
1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 83%
Fernando Haddad 11.9%
金·卡塔古里 3.8%
Márcio França 1.4%
$21,533 交易量
$21,533 交易量
2026-10-04
Tarcísio de Freitas
$10,880 交易量
83%
Fernando Haddad
$3,541 交易量
12%
金·卡塔古里
$1,730 交易量
4%
Márcio França
$2,343 交易量
1%
Erika Hilton
$3,038 交易量
1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas commands trader consensus at 82.5% implied probability for re-election on October 4, 2026, driven by late-April polls from Quaest and Paraná Pesquisas showing him leading first-round scenarios 38-48% to Fernando Haddad's 26-33%, with decisive second-round margins of 49-53% to 32-37%. His administration enjoys 54-65% approval ratings amid infrastructure gains, while Haddad faces 58% rejection tied to federal tenure. A May 13 report highlights Lula allies' concerns over polarization potentially yielding Tarcísio a first-round majority above 50%. Kim Kataguiri trails at 4% amid fragmented opposition, underscoring incumbency edge in this pivotal state race.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市场开放时间： Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
交易量
$21,533结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas commands trader consensus at 82.5% implied probability for re-election on October 4, 2026, driven by late-April polls from Quaest and Paraná Pesquisas showing him leading first-round scenarios 38-48% to Fernando Haddad's 26-33%, with decisive second-round margins of 49-53% to 32-37%. His administration enjoys 54-65% approval ratings amid infrastructure gains, while Haddad faces 58% rejection tied to federal tenure. A May 13 report highlights Lula allies' concerns over polarization potentially yielding Tarcísio a first-round majority above 50%. Kim Kataguiri trails at 4% amid fragmented opposition, underscoring incumbency edge in this pivotal state race.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$21,533结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas commands trader consensus at 82.5% implied probability for re-election on October 4, 2026, driven by late-April polls from Quaest and Paraná Pesquisas showing him leading first-round scenarios 38-48% to Fernando Haddad's 26-33%, with decisive second-round margins of 49-53% to 32-37%. His administration enjoys 54-65% approval ratings amid infrastructure gains, while Haddad faces 58% rejection tied to federal tenure. A May 13 report highlights Lula allies' concerns over polarization potentially yielding Tarcísio a first-round majority above 50%. Kim Kataguiri trails at 4% amid fragmented opposition, underscoring incumbency edge in this pivotal state race.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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