Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 93.5% implied probability against any STF justice facing successful impeachment removal before 2027, anchored by the historically unprecedented nature of such an outcome—no Supreme Federal Court minister has ever been removed this way—and stringent procedural barriers requiring the Attorney General's endorsement followed by a two-thirds supermajority in the Senate (41 of 81 votes). Recent opposition filings, including a fresh impeachment petition against Justice Alexandre de Moraes filed days ago over his suspension of the sentencing dosimetria law impacting January 8 cases, mirror prior unsuccessful requests amid ongoing STF controversies like the Master scandal CPI. A December 2025 ruling by Justice Gilmar Mendes further centralized initiation with the PGR, while government-aligned centrão forces in Congress block advancement, prioritizing institutional stability over public polls showing 57% impeachment support.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$68,415 交易量
$68,415 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$68,415 交易量
$68,415 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 93.5% implied probability against any STF justice facing successful impeachment removal before 2027, anchored by the historically unprecedented nature of such an outcome—no Supreme Federal Court minister has ever been removed this way—and stringent procedural barriers requiring the Attorney General's endorsement followed by a two-thirds supermajority in the Senate (41 of 81 votes). Recent opposition filings, including a fresh impeachment petition against Justice Alexandre de Moraes filed days ago over his suspension of the sentencing dosimetria law impacting January 8 cases, mirror prior unsuccessful requests amid ongoing STF controversies like the Master scandal CPI. A December 2025 ruling by Justice Gilmar Mendes further centralized initiation with the PGR, while government-aligned centrão forces in Congress block advancement, prioritizing institutional stability over public polls showing 57% impeachment support.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
交易量
$68,415结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 93.5% implied probability against any STF justice facing successful impeachment removal before 2027, anchored by the historically unprecedented nature of such an outcome—no Supreme Federal Court minister has ever been removed this way—and stringent procedural barriers requiring the Attorney General's endorsement followed by a two-thirds supermajority in the Senate (41 of 81 votes). Recent opposition filings, including a fresh impeachment petition against Justice Alexandre de Moraes filed days ago over his suspension of the sentencing dosimetria law impacting January 8 cases, mirror prior unsuccessful requests amid ongoing STF controversies like the Master scandal CPI. A December 2025 ruling by Justice Gilmar Mendes further centralized initiation with the PGR, while government-aligned centrão forces in Congress block advancement, prioritizing institutional stability over public polls showing 57% impeachment support.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$68,415结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 93.5% implied probability against any STF justice facing successful impeachment removal before 2027, anchored by the historically unprecedented nature of such an outcome—no Supreme Federal Court minister has ever been removed this way—and stringent procedural barriers requiring the Attorney General's endorsement followed by a two-thirds supermajority in the Senate (41 of 81 votes). Recent opposition filings, including a fresh impeachment petition against Justice Alexandre de Moraes filed days ago over his suspension of the sentencing dosimetria law impacting January 8 cases, mirror prior unsuccessful requests amid ongoing STF controversies like the Master scandal CPI. A December 2025 ruling by Justice Gilmar Mendes further centralized initiation with the PGR, while government-aligned centrão forces in Congress block advancement, prioritizing institutional stability over public polls showing 57% impeachment support.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题