The 93.5% trader consensus against a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026 stems primarily from confirmed statements and reporting on the two oldest justices. In August 2026, Justice Samuel Alito publicly stated he would remain for at least another full term beginning in October, directly addressing prior retirement speculation. Multiple sources have similarly indicated that Justice Clarence Thomas has no plans to step down this year. No other justices have signaled departures, and no health or other developments have altered the nine-member composition. With the new term underway and midterm elections approaching, these factors have kept implied probabilities heavily weighted toward continuity through December 2026.