Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability against Donald Trump resigning by December 31, 2026, reflecting the historical rarity of U.S. presidential resignations outside extraordinary circumstances such as major scandals or health crises. With Trump in his second term, current legislative priorities, cabinet confirmations, and executive actions indicate a focus on completing the full term without signals of voluntary departure. Market pricing aligns with established base rates for incumbents serving out their terms. Potential shifts remain possible from unforeseen developments like serious health events, major legal rulings, or sudden coalition fractures, though no such catalysts have emerged to date.