Democrats entered Michigan’s 13 congressional districts holding six seats, with forecasts projecting net gains centered on eight seats amid a national environment favoring the party by roughly five to twelve points. Three open or competitive districts—particularly the toss-ups in the 4th, 7th, and 10th—drove the positioning, as Democratic challengers targeted Republican-held territory in Macomb County and mid-Michigan. Early election-night returns showed Democratic candidates ahead or competitive in those battlegrounds, consistent with pre-election polling averages and models that placed the likely range between seven and nine seats. Market prices reflect trader assessment of these specific contests and turnout dynamics rather than broader speculation.