Virginia’s 11 House districts remain under the existing map after the state Supreme Court invalidated the April 2026 redistricting referendum, preserving a baseline of six Democratic seats. Trader attention centers on two Republican-held districts where Democratic nominees—prosecutor Shannon Taylor challenging incumbent Rob Wittman in the 1st and former Representative Elaine Luria facing Jen Kiggans in the 2nd—have drawn the strongest recent ratings shifts and joint fundraising support. Sabato’s Crystal Ball and other models rate the 1st as leaning Republican and the 2nd as a toss-up, while a long-shot bid by Tom Perriello in the 5th offers limited additional upside. National midterm dynamics favoring the opposition party sustain uncertainty over whether Democrats will net one or two flips by Election Day, keeping probabilities for seven or eight Democratic seats nearly even.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于7 37%
8 35%
9+ 15%
6 15%
最新
最新
2026-11-02
少于5个
<1%
5
<1%
6
15%
7
37%
8
35%
9+
15%
7 37%
8 35%
9+ 15%
6 15%
最新
最新
2026-11-02
少于5个
$386 交易量
<1%
5
$387 交易量
<1%
6
$2,560 交易量
15%
7
$1,646 交易量
37%
8
$1,293 交易量
35%
9+
$1,683 交易量
15%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Virginia in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Virginia US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Virginia’s 11 House districts remain under the existing map after the state Supreme Court invalidated the April 2026 redistricting referendum, preserving a baseline of six Democratic seats. Trader attention centers on two Republican-held districts where Democratic nominees—prosecutor Shannon Taylor challenging incumbent Rob Wittman in the 1st and former Representative Elaine Luria facing Jen Kiggans in the 2nd—have drawn the strongest recent ratings shifts and joint fundraising support. Sabato’s Crystal Ball and other models rate the 1st as leaning Republican and the 2nd as a toss-up, while a long-shot bid by Tom Perriello in the 5th offers limited additional upside. National midterm dynamics favoring the opposition party sustain uncertainty over whether Democrats will net one or two flips by Election Day, keeping probabilities for seven or eight Democratic seats nearly even.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Virginia in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Virginia US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Virginia US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Aug 11, 2026, 10:12 AM ET
交易量
$7,954结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Aug 11, 2026, 10:12 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Virginia in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Virginia US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Virginia’s 11 House districts remain under the existing map after the state Supreme Court invalidated the April 2026 redistricting referendum, preserving a baseline of six Democratic seats. Trader attention centers on two Republican-held districts where Democratic nominees—prosecutor Shannon Taylor challenging incumbent Rob Wittman in the 1st and former Representative Elaine Luria facing Jen Kiggans in the 2nd—have drawn the strongest recent ratings shifts and joint fundraising support. Sabato’s Crystal Ball and other models rate the 1st as leaning Republican and the 2nd as a toss-up, while a long-shot bid by Tom Perriello in the 5th offers limited additional upside. National midterm dynamics favoring the opposition party sustain uncertainty over whether Democrats will net one or two flips by Election Day, keeping probabilities for seven or eight Democratic seats nearly even.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Virginia in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Virginia US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Virginia US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$7,954结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Aug 11, 2026, 10:12 AM ETVirginia’s 11 House districts remain under the existing map after the state Supreme Court invalidated the April 2026 redistricting referendum, preserving a baseline of six Democratic seats. Trader attention centers on two Republican-held districts where Democratic nominees—prosecutor Shannon Taylor challenging incumbent Rob Wittman in the 1st and former Representative Elaine Luria facing Jen Kiggans in the 2nd—have drawn the strongest recent ratings shifts and joint fundraising support. Sabato’s Crystal Ball and other models rate the 1st as leaning Republican and the 2nd as a toss-up, while a long-shot bid by Tom Perriello in the 5th offers limited additional upside. National midterm dynamics favoring the opposition party sustain uncertainty over whether Democrats will net one or two flips by Election Day, keeping probabilities for seven or eight Democratic seats nearly even.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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