New York’s 26 congressional districts feature a handful of closely contested suburban and Hudson Valley races that anchor trader expectations near 19–21 Democratic seats. Incumbent Republicans in districts such as NY-17 (Mike Lawler) and NY-1 (Nick LaLota) face credible Democratic challengers, while Democratic-held seats including NY-3 (Tom Suozzi) and NY-4 remain vulnerable to modest shifts. The national midterm environment, with Democrats positioned to gain ground in generic-ballot polling and historical patterns, supports incremental gains, yet New York’s specific candidate matchups, fundraising edges, and voter turnout in swing areas introduce volatility. Primaries concluded without major disruptions, leaving general-election dynamics and any late-cycle economic or national developments as the primary variables that could separate outcomes among the leading probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于20 36%
21+ 27%
19 25%
18 5.6%
最新
最新
2026-11-02
少于16个
<1%
16
1%
17
1%
18
6%
19
25%
20
36%
21+
27%
20 36%
21+ 27%
19 25%
18 5.6%
最新
最新
2026-11-02
少于16个
$559 交易量
<1%
16
$374 交易量
1%
17
$791 交易量
1%
18
$983 交易量
6%
19
$2,664 交易量
25%
20
$1,238 交易量
36%
21+
$935 交易量
27%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in New York in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All New York US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.New York’s 26 congressional districts feature a handful of closely contested suburban and Hudson Valley races that anchor trader expectations near 19–21 Democratic seats. Incumbent Republicans in districts such as NY-17 (Mike Lawler) and NY-1 (Nick LaLota) face credible Democratic challengers, while Democratic-held seats including NY-3 (Tom Suozzi) and NY-4 remain vulnerable to modest shifts. The national midterm environment, with Democrats positioned to gain ground in generic-ballot polling and historical patterns, supports incremental gains, yet New York’s specific candidate matchups, fundraising edges, and voter turnout in swing areas introduce volatility. Primaries concluded without major disruptions, leaving general-election dynamics and any late-cycle economic or national developments as the primary variables that could separate outcomes among the leading probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in New York in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All New York US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All New York US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Aug 11, 2026, 10:14 AM ET
交易量
$7,545结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Aug 11, 2026, 10:14 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in New York in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All New York US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.New York’s 26 congressional districts feature a handful of closely contested suburban and Hudson Valley races that anchor trader expectations near 19–21 Democratic seats. Incumbent Republicans in districts such as NY-17 (Mike Lawler) and NY-1 (Nick LaLota) face credible Democratic challengers, while Democratic-held seats including NY-3 (Tom Suozzi) and NY-4 remain vulnerable to modest shifts. The national midterm environment, with Democrats positioned to gain ground in generic-ballot polling and historical patterns, supports incremental gains, yet New York’s specific candidate matchups, fundraising edges, and voter turnout in swing areas introduce volatility. Primaries concluded without major disruptions, leaving general-election dynamics and any late-cycle economic or national developments as the primary variables that could separate outcomes among the leading probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in New York in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All New York US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All New York US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$7,545结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Aug 11, 2026, 10:14 AM ETNew York’s 26 congressional districts feature a handful of closely contested suburban and Hudson Valley races that anchor trader expectations near 19–21 Democratic seats. Incumbent Republicans in districts such as NY-17 (Mike Lawler) and NY-1 (Nick LaLota) face credible Democratic challengers, while Democratic-held seats including NY-3 (Tom Suozzi) and NY-4 remain vulnerable to modest shifts. The national midterm environment, with Democrats positioned to gain ground in generic-ballot polling and historical patterns, supports incremental gains, yet New York’s specific candidate matchups, fundraising edges, and voter turnout in swing areas introduce volatility. Primaries concluded without major disruptions, leaving general-election dynamics and any late-cycle economic or national developments as the primary variables that could separate outcomes among the leading probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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