**Legal and reputational risks are the dominant factor suppressing near-term US imports of Russian diesel despite the October 9 Treasury General License 135 waiver.** US companies, banks, and ports remain reluctant to handle cargoes amid uncertainty over whether the waiver overrides the 2022 congressional ban on Russian energy imports, with analysts noting potential congressional scrutiny and compliance costs. Recent tankers, including the Agioi Fanendes loaded with roughly 40,000 metric tons in late October, have idled off the East Coast or diverted toward Brazil and other markets, as no confirmed US buyer has emerged. Russia’s diesel exports doubled to 271,000 barrels per day in October, yet volumes remain constrained by refinery outages exceeding 40% capacity, and US distillate inventories sit near 99 million barrels. Diesel retail prices held at $6.13 per gallon as of November 11, reflecting tight supply but limited impact expected from diverted Russian flows. Key near-term catalysts include any confirmed discharge by November 15 or 30 resolution dates and potential further policy clarifications.