The fixed constitutional schedule for U.S. congressional elections every two years, combined with the absence of any enacted legislation or executive action to alter it, anchors trader expectations that the 2026 midterms will occur on November 3 as required by federal law. State primaries are already underway or set through September in multiple jurisdictions, with no reported court rulings, congressional votes, or agency directives indicating postponement or cancellation. Occasional political commentary on potential disruptions has not translated into official steps capable of overriding the established timeline or Electoral College framework. While a severe national emergency could theoretically prompt debate, historical precedent and the decentralized administration of elections across states limit the practical impact of such scenarios on the current implied probability.