The constitutional requirement and federal statute fixing Election Day as the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November make postponement or cancellation of the 2026 midterms highly improbable without congressional action, which has never occurred for a general election. Recent developments, including legal challenges to mail voting rules, redistricting disputes, and special elections proceeding on schedule through August 2026, have created procedural uncertainty but have not altered the core timeline. Traders assign 96% probability to “Yes” because the president lacks unilateral authority to shift the date, historical precedent shows elections held amid wars and crises, and no legislative effort to delay has advanced. Remaining low-probability risks include a congressional response to an unforeseen national emergency or coordinated state-level disruptions severe enough to prompt federal intervention before November 3.