Persistent geopolitical tensions stemming from the U.S.-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026 continue to suppress Strait of Hormuz traffic, with daily transits averaging just 5-10% of the pre-crisis norm of 120-140 vessels as of mid-May. This has driven the 57.5% implied probability that flows will not normalize by July 31, reflecting trader consensus on extended recovery timelines amid canceled protection-and-indemnity insurance, IRGC restrictions, and rerouting of oil and LNG cargoes representing roughly 20% of global seaborne crude. Recent ceasefires and partial reopening announcements have failed to restore volumes, while World Bank and shipping data point to sustained disruptions through late summer. Key near-term catalysts include any renewed diplomatic breakthroughs or further naval escalations that could alter the risk premium embedded in current market-implied odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$230,485 交易量
$230,485 交易量
2026-07-31
$230,485 交易量
$230,485 交易量
2026-07-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions stemming from the U.S.-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026 continue to suppress Strait of Hormuz traffic, with daily transits averaging just 5-10% of the pre-crisis norm of 120-140 vessels as of mid-May. This has driven the 57.5% implied probability that flows will not normalize by July 31, reflecting trader consensus on extended recovery timelines amid canceled protection-and-indemnity insurance, IRGC restrictions, and rerouting of oil and LNG cargoes representing roughly 20% of global seaborne crude. Recent ceasefires and partial reopening announcements have failed to restore volumes, while World Bank and shipping data point to sustained disruptions through late summer. Key near-term catalysts include any renewed diplomatic breakthroughs or further naval escalations that could alter the risk premium embedded in current market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市场开放时间： May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ET
交易量
$230,485结束日期
2026-07-31市场开放时间
May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions stemming from the U.S.-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026 continue to suppress Strait of Hormuz traffic, with daily transits averaging just 5-10% of the pre-crisis norm of 120-140 vessels as of mid-May. This has driven the 57.5% implied probability that flows will not normalize by July 31, reflecting trader consensus on extended recovery timelines amid canceled protection-and-indemnity insurance, IRGC restrictions, and rerouting of oil and LNG cargoes representing roughly 20% of global seaborne crude. Recent ceasefires and partial reopening announcements have failed to restore volumes, while World Bank and shipping data point to sustained disruptions through late summer. Key near-term catalysts include any renewed diplomatic breakthroughs or further naval escalations that could alter the risk premium embedded in current market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$230,485结束日期
2026-07-31市场开放时间
May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent geopolitical tensions stemming from the U.S.-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026 continue to suppress Strait of Hormuz traffic, with daily transits averaging just 5-10% of the pre-crisis norm of 120-140 vessels as of mid-May. This has driven the 57.5% implied probability that flows will not normalize by July 31, reflecting trader consensus on extended recovery timelines amid canceled protection-and-indemnity insurance, IRGC restrictions, and rerouting of oil and LNG cargoes representing roughly 20% of global seaborne crude. Recent ceasefires and partial reopening announcements have failed to restore volumes, while World Bank and shipping data point to sustained disruptions through late summer. Key near-term catalysts include any renewed diplomatic breakthroughs or further naval escalations that could alter the risk premium embedded in current market-implied odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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