Recent escalations in the Middle East have intensified focus on the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG trade, as U.S. Central Command advances Project Freedom with guided-missile destroyers such as the USS Truxtun and USS Mason transiting the waterway in early May amid reported Iranian missile and drone incidents. U.K. deployment of the HMS Dragon supports multinational planning for secure passage post-ceasefire, while data from MarineTraffic and CENTCOM indicate selective commercial transits, including Maersk vessels, have occurred under protection. These developments directly influence tanker charter rates, Brent crude volatility, and broader energy logistics costs, with trader sentiment shaped by proximity to the May 31 resolution window and potential additional allied naval movements that could ease supply constraints.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$985,898 交易量
2026-05-31
United Kingdom
3%
France
5%
Germany
2%
Italy
1%
Netherlands
1%
Japan
1%
Canada
<1%
India
2%
Greece
<1%
Pakistan
1%
Saudi Arabia
2%
UAE
4%
Bahrain
4%
Qatar
<1%
Kuwait
5%
Oman
1%
South Korea
<1%
Australia
<1%
$985,898 交易量
United Kingdom
$158,552 交易量
3%
France
$94,725 交易量
5%
Germany
$158,929 交易量
2%
Italy
$73,958 交易量
1%
Netherlands
$50,298 交易量
1%
Japan
$110,605 交易量
1%
Canada
$19,730 交易量
<1%
India
$5,919 交易量
2%
Greece
$18,380 交易量
<1%
Pakistan
$11,940 交易量
1%
Saudi Arabia
$20,254 交易量
2%
UAE
$2,764 交易量
4%
Bahrain
$18,244 交易量
4%
Qatar
$5,626 交易量
<1%
Kuwait
$1,101 交易量
5%
Oman
$4,498 交易量
1%
South Korea
$82,690 交易量
<1%
Australia
$72,042 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Recent escalations in the Middle East have intensified focus on the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG trade, as U.S. Central Command advances Project Freedom with guided-missile destroyers such as the USS Truxtun and USS Mason transiting the waterway in early May amid reported Iranian missile and drone incidents. U.K. deployment of the HMS Dragon supports multinational planning for secure passage post-ceasefire, while data from MarineTraffic and CENTCOM indicate selective commercial transits, including Maersk vessels, have occurred under protection. These developments directly influence tanker charter rates, Brent crude volatility, and broader energy logistics costs, with trader sentiment shaped by proximity to the May 31 resolution window and potential additional allied naval movements that could ease supply constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
市场开放时间： May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
交易量
$985,898结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Recent escalations in the Middle East have intensified focus on the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG trade, as U.S. Central Command advances Project Freedom with guided-missile destroyers such as the USS Truxtun and USS Mason transiting the waterway in early May amid reported Iranian missile and drone incidents. U.K. deployment of the HMS Dragon supports multinational planning for secure passage post-ceasefire, while data from MarineTraffic and CENTCOM indicate selective commercial transits, including Maersk vessels, have occurred under protection. These developments directly influence tanker charter rates, Brent crude volatility, and broader energy logistics costs, with trader sentiment shaped by proximity to the May 31 resolution window and potential additional allied naval movements that could ease supply constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
交易量
$985,898结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent escalations in the Middle East have intensified focus on the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG trade, as U.S. Central Command advances Project Freedom with guided-missile destroyers such as the USS Truxtun and USS Mason transiting the waterway in early May amid reported Iranian missile and drone incidents. U.K. deployment of the HMS Dragon supports multinational planning for secure passage post-ceasefire, while data from MarineTraffic and CENTCOM indicate selective commercial transits, including Maersk vessels, have occurred under protection. These developments directly influence tanker charter rates, Brent crude volatility, and broader energy logistics costs, with trader sentiment shaped by proximity to the May 31 resolution window and potential additional allied naval movements that could ease supply constraints.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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