Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026 continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, positioning the 20-39 ships range as the leading outcome with 63% implied probability. Pre-conflict daily averages exceeded 100 vessels, yet recent shipping data show single-digit to low-teens transits per day amid mine-clearance operations, Iranian coordination requirements introduced May 5, and renewed kinetic incidents that week. This has kept weekly totals well below historical norms, with traders incorporating the persistent risk premium into oil logistics and refined-product supply chains. Any near-term de-escalation or verified reopening mechanism could shift volumes toward the 40-59 band, though current naval and regulatory hurdles sustain the market’s consensus around subdued activity for the May 11 week.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于20-39 63%
40-59 30%
60-79 5.1%
<20 4.0%
$79,065 交易量
$79,065 交易量
2026-05-17
<20
4%
20-39
63%
40-59
30%
60-79
5%
80+
1%
20-39 63%
40-59 30%
60-79 5.1%
<20 4.0%
$79,065 交易量
$79,065 交易量
2026-05-17
<20
$27,910 交易量
4%
20-39
$13,297 交易量
63%
40-59
$14,444 交易量
30%
60-79
$12,006 交易量
5%
80+
$11,424 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026 continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, positioning the 20-39 ships range as the leading outcome with 63% implied probability. Pre-conflict daily averages exceeded 100 vessels, yet recent shipping data show single-digit to low-teens transits per day amid mine-clearance operations, Iranian coordination requirements introduced May 5, and renewed kinetic incidents that week. This has kept weekly totals well below historical norms, with traders incorporating the persistent risk premium into oil logistics and refined-product supply chains. Any near-term de-escalation or verified reopening mechanism could shift volumes toward the 40-59 band, though current naval and regulatory hurdles sustain the market’s consensus around subdued activity for the May 11 week.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市场开放时间： May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
交易量
$79,065结束日期
2026-05-17市场开放时间
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026 continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, positioning the 20-39 ships range as the leading outcome with 63% implied probability. Pre-conflict daily averages exceeded 100 vessels, yet recent shipping data show single-digit to low-teens transits per day amid mine-clearance operations, Iranian coordination requirements introduced May 5, and renewed kinetic incidents that week. This has kept weekly totals well below historical norms, with traders incorporating the persistent risk premium into oil logistics and refined-product supply chains. Any near-term de-escalation or verified reopening mechanism could shift volumes toward the 40-59 band, though current naval and regulatory hurdles sustain the market’s consensus around subdued activity for the May 11 week.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$79,065结束日期
2026-05-17市场开放时间
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026 continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, positioning the 20-39 ships range as the leading outcome with 63% implied probability. Pre-conflict daily averages exceeded 100 vessels, yet recent shipping data show single-digit to low-teens transits per day amid mine-clearance operations, Iranian coordination requirements introduced May 5, and renewed kinetic incidents that week. This has kept weekly totals well below historical norms, with traders incorporating the persistent risk premium into oil logistics and refined-product supply chains. Any near-term de-escalation or verified reopening mechanism could shift volumes toward the 40-59 band, though current naval and regulatory hurdles sustain the market’s consensus around subdued activity for the May 11 week.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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