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icon for 美国神风海豚在5月31日前确认?

美国神风海豚在5月31日前确认?

icon for 美国神风海豚在5月31日前确认?

美国神风海豚在5月31日前确认?

<1% 概率
Polymarket

$26,890 交易量

<1% 概率
Polymarket

$26,890 交易量

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the existence of kamikaze dolphins in the US military is confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Kamikaze dolphins” refers to the use of dolphins as weapons through the attachment of explosive devices to dolphins for the purpose of attacking ships or other targets. The use of dolphins for mine detection, surveillance, retrieval, harbor defense or other military purposes not involving the attachment of explosive devices will not qualify. Confirmation of the existence of kamikaze dolphins requires confirmation that the United States military has used, trained, or equipped dolphins to conduct attack missions of this type, or operates an ongoing program for the use of kamikaze dolphins. Official confirmation from the United States government or military of the existence of kamikaze dolphins will qualify. A consensus of credible reporting confirming the existence of kamikaze dolphins in the US military will also qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the United States government and military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 99.5% "No" probability due to no official confirmation of US "kamikaze dolphins" despite viral attention from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's May 5 Pentagon briefing, where he quipped he could "neither confirm nor deny" their existence while ruling out Iran's use amid Strait of Hormuz tensions. The US Navy's marine mammal program has trained bottlenose dolphins for decades in non-lethal roles like mine detection and harbor defense, not suicide missions, as fact-checks affirmed by May 7. Absent a whistleblower leak, declassified disclosure, or explicit agency statement by May 31, resolution barriers remain high, sustaining trader confidence in non-occurrence.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the existence of kamikaze dolphins in the US military is confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Kamikaze dolphins” refers to the use of dolphins as weapons through the attachment of explosive devices to dolphins for the purpose of attacking ships or other targets. The use of dolphins for mine detection, surveillance, retrieval, harbor defense or other military purposes not involving the attachment of explosive devices will not qualify.

Confirmation of the existence of kamikaze dolphins requires confirmation that the United States military has used, trained, or equipped dolphins to conduct attack missions of this type, or operates an ongoing program for the use of kamikaze dolphins.

Official confirmation from the United States government or military of the existence of kamikaze dolphins will qualify. A consensus of credible reporting confirming the existence of kamikaze dolphins in the US military will also qualify.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the United States government and military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$26,890
结束日期
2026-05-31
市场开放时间
May 11, 2026, 6:39 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the existence of kamikaze dolphins in the US military is confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Kamikaze dolphins” refers to the use of dolphins as weapons through the attachment of explosive devices to dolphins for the purpose of attacking ships or other targets. The use of dolphins for mine detection, surveillance, retrieval, harbor defense or other military purposes not involving the attachment of explosive devices will not qualify. Confirmation of the existence of kamikaze dolphins requires confirmation that the United States military has used, trained, or equipped dolphins to conduct attack missions of this type, or operates an ongoing program for the use of kamikaze dolphins. Official confirmation from the United States government or military of the existence of kamikaze dolphins will qualify. A consensus of credible reporting confirming the existence of kamikaze dolphins in the US military will also qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the United States government and military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the existence of kamikaze dolphins in the US military is confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Kamikaze dolphins” refers to the use of dolphins as weapons through the attachment of explosive devices to dolphins for the purpose of attacking ships or other targets. The use of dolphins for mine detection, surveillance, retrieval, harbor defense or other military purposes not involving the attachment of explosive devices will not qualify. Confirmation of the existence of kamikaze dolphins requires confirmation that the United States military has used, trained, or equipped dolphins to conduct attack missions of this type, or operates an ongoing program for the use of kamikaze dolphins. Official confirmation from the United States government or military of the existence of kamikaze dolphins will qualify. A consensus of credible reporting confirming the existence of kamikaze dolphins in the US military will also qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the United States government and military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 99.5% "No" probability due to no official confirmation of US "kamikaze dolphins" despite viral attention from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's May 5 Pentagon briefing, where he quipped he could "neither confirm nor deny" their existence while ruling out Iran's use amid Strait of Hormuz tensions. The US Navy's marine mammal program has trained bottlenose dolphins for decades in non-lethal roles like mine detection and harbor defense, not suicide missions, as fact-checks affirmed by May 7. Absent a whistleblower leak, declassified disclosure, or explicit agency statement by May 31, resolution barriers remain high, sustaining trader confidence in non-occurrence.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the existence of kamikaze dolphins in the US military is confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Kamikaze dolphins” refers to the use of dolphins as weapons through the attachment of explosive devices to dolphins for the purpose of attacking ships or other targets. The use of dolphins for mine detection, surveillance, retrieval, harbor defense or other military purposes not involving the attachment of explosive devices will not qualify.

Confirmation of the existence of kamikaze dolphins requires confirmation that the United States military has used, trained, or equipped dolphins to conduct attack missions of this type, or operates an ongoing program for the use of kamikaze dolphins.

Official confirmation from the United States government or military of the existence of kamikaze dolphins will qualify. A consensus of credible reporting confirming the existence of kamikaze dolphins in the US military will also qualify.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the United States government and military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$26,890
结束日期
2026-05-31
市场开放时间
May 11, 2026, 6:39 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the existence of kamikaze dolphins in the US military is confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Kamikaze dolphins” refers to the use of dolphins as weapons through the attachment of explosive devices to dolphins for the purpose of attacking ships or other targets. The use of dolphins for mine detection, surveillance, retrieval, harbor defense or other military purposes not involving the attachment of explosive devices will not qualify. Confirmation of the existence of kamikaze dolphins requires confirmation that the United States military has used, trained, or equipped dolphins to conduct attack missions of this type, or operates an ongoing program for the use of kamikaze dolphins. Official confirmation from the United States government or military of the existence of kamikaze dolphins will qualify. A consensus of credible reporting confirming the existence of kamikaze dolphins in the US military will also qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the United States government and military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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常见问题

"美国神风海豚在5月31日前确认?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"美国神风特攻队海豚将在5月31日前确认?",概率为 1%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 1¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 1%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前,"美国神风海豚在5月31日前确认?"已产生 $26.9K 的总交易量(自May 11, 2026市场上线以来)。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与,并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"美国神风海豚在5月31日前确认?"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

这是一个非常开放的市场。"美国神风海豚在5月31日前确认?"的当前领先者是"美国神风特攻队海豚将在5月31日前确认?",仅有 1%。由于没有任何结果占据明显优势,交易者认为这高度不确定,可能带来独特的交易机会。这些赔率实时更新,请将本页加入书签。

"美国神风海豚在5月31日前确认?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。