Trader consensus prices "No" at 99.1% for the Iranian regime falling by May 31, reflecting its demonstrated resilience after suppressing the 2025–2026 protests sparked by economic collapse and currency freefall in late December 2025. Security forces remained loyal during January's nationwide demonstrations, quelling unrest without mass defections or institutional fractures, while the ongoing U.S.-Iran war since February has rallied hardliners, evidenced by large pro-government mobilizations in Tehran through early May. No significant escalations, such as IRGC mutinies or leadership vacuums, have emerged in the past 30 days amid diplomatic talks and naval standoffs. With just over two weeks remaining, only an improbable sudden military coup or overwhelming renewed uprisings could shift odds, though historical patterns show the regime's adaptability to internal pressures.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$19,765,709 交易量
$19,765,709 交易量
2026-05-31
是
$19,765,709 交易量
$19,765,709 交易量
2026-05-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 99.1% for the Iranian regime falling by May 31, reflecting its demonstrated resilience after suppressing the 2025–2026 protests sparked by economic collapse and currency freefall in late December 2025. Security forces remained loyal during January's nationwide demonstrations, quelling unrest without mass defections or institutional fractures, while the ongoing U.S.-Iran war since February has rallied hardliners, evidenced by large pro-government mobilizations in Tehran through early May. No significant escalations, such as IRGC mutinies or leadership vacuums, have emerged in the past 30 days amid diplomatic talks and naval standoffs. With just over two weeks remaining, only an improbable sudden military coup or overwhelming renewed uprisings could shift odds, though historical patterns show the regime's adaptability to internal pressures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ET
交易量
$19,765,709结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 99.1% for the Iranian regime falling by May 31, reflecting its demonstrated resilience after suppressing the 2025–2026 protests sparked by economic collapse and currency freefall in late December 2025. Security forces remained loyal during January's nationwide demonstrations, quelling unrest without mass defections or institutional fractures, while the ongoing U.S.-Iran war since February has rallied hardliners, evidenced by large pro-government mobilizations in Tehran through early May. No significant escalations, such as IRGC mutinies or leadership vacuums, have emerged in the past 30 days amid diplomatic talks and naval standoffs. With just over two weeks remaining, only an improbable sudden military coup or overwhelming renewed uprisings could shift odds, though historical patterns show the regime's adaptability to internal pressures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$19,765,709结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 99.1% for the Iranian regime falling by May 31, reflecting its demonstrated resilience after suppressing the 2025–2026 protests sparked by economic collapse and currency freefall in late December 2025. Security forces remained loyal during January's nationwide demonstrations, quelling unrest without mass defections or institutional fractures, while the ongoing U.S.-Iran war since February has rallied hardliners, evidenced by large pro-government mobilizations in Tehran through early May. No significant escalations, such as IRGC mutinies or leadership vacuums, have emerged in the past 30 days amid diplomatic talks and naval standoffs. With just over two weeks remaining, only an improbable sudden military coup or overwhelming renewed uprisings could shift odds, though historical patterns show the regime's adaptability to internal pressures.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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