Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.1% for Iranian Kurds declaring independence, reflecting the absence of any formal announcement by qualifying groups like PDKI, PJAK, PAK, or Komala asserting a new sovereign state over Iranian territory before the June 30, 2026, deadline. Amid the ongoing 2026 Kurdish-Iranian crisis—sparked by January protests and February's Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan formation for self-determination—recent Iranian Revolutionary Guard strikes and April network dismantlements have restored control, reinforced by Tehran's May 6 shift to sustained attrition targeting bases in Iraq. Structural barriers, including Iran's military dominance and opposition from neighbors Turkey and Iraq, underpin high confidence, though regime weakening from broader conflicts or major external intervention could prompt a late declaration.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$138,949 交易量
$138,949 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$138,949 交易量
$138,949 交易量
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.1% for Iranian Kurds declaring independence, reflecting the absence of any formal announcement by qualifying groups like PDKI, PJAK, PAK, or Komala asserting a new sovereign state over Iranian territory before the June 30, 2026, deadline. Amid the ongoing 2026 Kurdish-Iranian crisis—sparked by January protests and February's Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan formation for self-determination—recent Iranian Revolutionary Guard strikes and April network dismantlements have restored control, reinforced by Tehran's May 6 shift to sustained attrition targeting bases in Iraq. Structural barriers, including Iran's military dominance and opposition from neighbors Turkey and Iraq, underpin high confidence, though regime weakening from broader conflicts or major external intervention could prompt a late declaration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 3, 2026, 6:16 PM ET
交易量
$138,949结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Mar 3, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.1% for Iranian Kurds declaring independence, reflecting the absence of any formal announcement by qualifying groups like PDKI, PJAK, PAK, or Komala asserting a new sovereign state over Iranian territory before the June 30, 2026, deadline. Amid the ongoing 2026 Kurdish-Iranian crisis—sparked by January protests and February's Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan formation for self-determination—recent Iranian Revolutionary Guard strikes and April network dismantlements have restored control, reinforced by Tehran's May 6 shift to sustained attrition targeting bases in Iraq. Structural barriers, including Iran's military dominance and opposition from neighbors Turkey and Iraq, underpin high confidence, though regime weakening from broader conflicts or major external intervention could prompt a late declaration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$138,949结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Mar 3, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.1% for Iranian Kurds declaring independence, reflecting the absence of any formal announcement by qualifying groups like PDKI, PJAK, PAK, or Komala asserting a new sovereign state over Iranian territory before the June 30, 2026, deadline. Amid the ongoing 2026 Kurdish-Iranian crisis—sparked by January protests and February's Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan formation for self-determination—recent Iranian Revolutionary Guard strikes and April network dismantlements have restored control, reinforced by Tehran's May 6 shift to sustained attrition targeting bases in Iraq. Structural barriers, including Iran's military dominance and opposition from neighbors Turkey and Iraq, underpin high confidence, though regime weakening from broader conflicts or major external intervention could prompt a late declaration.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题