Ongoing ceasefire negotiations between the United States and Iran, punctuated by Vice President JD Vance’s reports of incremental progress alongside President Trump’s rejection of Tehran’s latest proposals, have kept high-profile entries into Iranian territory off the table. With roughly six weeks remaining until the June 30 resolution, trader consensus assigns single-digit probabilities to any U.S. House member, senator, or cabinet-level figure such as Marco Rubio or Jared Kushner physically entering Iran, reflecting the absence of diplomatic normalization or security arrangements that would enable such travel. Reza Pahlavi’s separate market shows modestly higher but still limited odds around 14 percent, constrained by Iran’s continued internal security controls and the lack of verified regime change or invitation. No scheduled summits, hostage releases, or official visits fall within the window, leaving current pricing anchored in the prevailing diplomatic impasse rather than imminent breakthroughs.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$389,028 交易量
2026-06-30
任何美国众议院议员
5%
任何美国参议员
3%
贾里德·库什纳
2%
马尔科·鲁比奥
2%
皮特·海格塞斯
2%
JD·万斯
2%
本雅明·内塔尼亚胡
1%
唐纳德·特朗普
1%
$389,028 交易量
任何美国众议院议员
$86,948 交易量
5%
任何美国参议员
$29,991 交易量
3%
贾里德·库什纳
$15,604 交易量
2%
马尔科·鲁比奥
$21,470 交易量
2%
皮特·海格塞斯
$93,021 交易量
2%
JD·万斯
$31,033 交易量
2%
本雅明·内塔尼亚胡
$42,286 交易量
1%
唐纳德·特朗普
$68,675 交易量
1%
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing ceasefire negotiations between the United States and Iran, punctuated by Vice President JD Vance’s reports of incremental progress alongside President Trump’s rejection of Tehran’s latest proposals, have kept high-profile entries into Iranian territory off the table. With roughly six weeks remaining until the June 30 resolution, trader consensus assigns single-digit probabilities to any U.S. House member, senator, or cabinet-level figure such as Marco Rubio or Jared Kushner physically entering Iran, reflecting the absence of diplomatic normalization or security arrangements that would enable such travel. Reza Pahlavi’s separate market shows modestly higher but still limited odds around 14 percent, constrained by Iran’s continued internal security controls and the lack of verified regime change or invitation. No scheduled summits, hostage releases, or official visits fall within the window, leaving current pricing anchored in the prevailing diplomatic impasse rather than imminent breakthroughs.
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
交易量
$389,028结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing ceasefire negotiations between the United States and Iran, punctuated by Vice President JD Vance’s reports of incremental progress alongside President Trump’s rejection of Tehran’s latest proposals, have kept high-profile entries into Iranian territory off the table. With roughly six weeks remaining until the June 30 resolution, trader consensus assigns single-digit probabilities to any U.S. House member, senator, or cabinet-level figure such as Marco Rubio or Jared Kushner physically entering Iran, reflecting the absence of diplomatic normalization or security arrangements that would enable such travel. Reza Pahlavi’s separate market shows modestly higher but still limited odds around 14 percent, constrained by Iran’s continued internal security controls and the lack of verified regime change or invitation. No scheduled summits, hostage releases, or official visits fall within the window, leaving current pricing anchored in the prevailing diplomatic impasse rather than imminent breakthroughs.
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$389,028结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing ceasefire negotiations between the United States and Iran, punctuated by Vice President JD Vance’s reports of incremental progress alongside President Trump’s rejection of Tehran’s latest proposals, have kept high-profile entries into Iranian territory off the table. With roughly six weeks remaining until the June 30 resolution, trader consensus assigns single-digit probabilities to any U.S. House member, senator, or cabinet-level figure such as Marco Rubio or Jared Kushner physically entering Iran, reflecting the absence of diplomatic normalization or security arrangements that would enable such travel. Reza Pahlavi’s separate market shows modestly higher but still limited odds around 14 percent, constrained by Iran’s continued internal security controls and the lack of verified regime change or invitation. No scheduled summits, hostage releases, or official visits fall within the window, leaving current pricing anchored in the prevailing diplomatic impasse rather than imminent breakthroughs.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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