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icon for U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30?

U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30?

icon for U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30?

U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30?

6月 30

6月 30

5% 概率
Polymarket

$81,282 交易量

5% 概率
Polymarket

$81,282 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. Recent U.S.-facilitated ceasefire extensions between Israel and Lebanon, combined with commitments to limit Hezbollah activity in southern sectors, have reduced immediate threats to the Beirut embassy compound and allowed core diplomatic functions to continue. Earlier partial departures of non-emergency personnel addressed February tensions tied to Iran-related developments, yet no announcement or confirmation of a full embassy evacuation has occurred amid this stabilization. Security alerts into early June note contained volatility rather than acute escalation requiring withdrawal. Follow-up diplomatic talks scheduled later in the month reinforce trader consensus that complete evacuation by the June 30 deadline is unnecessary. A sudden ceasefire breakdown or major security incident could still alter assessments in the remaining window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.

Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.

The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
交易量
$81,282
结束日期
2026-06-30
市场开放时间
May 26, 2026, 1:01 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. Recent U.S.-facilitated ceasefire extensions between Israel and Lebanon, combined with commitments to limit Hezbollah activity in southern sectors, have reduced immediate threats to the Beirut embassy compound and allowed core diplomatic functions to continue. Earlier partial departures of non-emergency personnel addressed February tensions tied to Iran-related developments, yet no announcement or confirmation of a full embassy evacuation has occurred amid this stabilization. Security alerts into early June note contained volatility rather than acute escalation requiring withdrawal. Follow-up diplomatic talks scheduled later in the month reinforce trader consensus that complete evacuation by the June 30 deadline is unnecessary. A sudden ceasefire breakdown or major security incident could still alter assessments in the remaining window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.

Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.

The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
交易量
$81,282
结束日期
2026-06-30
市场开放时间
May 26, 2026, 1:01 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30?"是 Polymarket 上的一个预测市场,交易者根据自己对事件是否会发生的判断买卖"是"或"否"的份额。当前社区预测的概率为 4%("Yes")。例如,如果"是"的价格为 4¢,则市场集体认为该事件发生的概率为 4%。这些赔率会随着交易者对新动态和信息的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前,"U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30?"已产生 $81.3K 的总交易量(自May 26, 2026市场上线以来)。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与,并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30?"上交易,只需选择你认为答案是"是"还是"否"。每一方都有一个反映市场隐含概率的当前价格。输入你的金额并点击"交易"。如果你买入"是"的份额且结果为"是",每份支付 $1。如果结果为"否",你的"是"份额支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额以锁定利润或止损。

"U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30?"的当前概率为 4%("Yes")。这意味着 Polymarket 社区目前认为该事件发生的概率为 4%。这些赔率基于实际交易实时更新,持续提供市场预期信号。

"U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。