Persistent disagreements over territorial concessions, Ukrainian security guarantees, and Russia's maximalist demands have stalled all recent diplomatic efforts, with U.S.-brokered talks in early 2026 yielding no breakthrough. As of mid-August 2026, the conflict continues with Russian forces holding roughly 20 percent of Ukrainian territory and mutual long-range strikes, including a deadly Ukrainian drone attack inside Russia on August 11. The Kremlin stated in late July that it had seen no concrete new proposals, reinforcing trader consensus reflected in the 99.4 percent "No" probability. A signed peace deal by August 31 would require an abrupt reversal of entrenched positions and rapid agreement on complex terms amid active hostilities—scenarios possible only through undisclosed high-level diplomacy or sudden battlefield developments that have not materialized in the current window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
<1% 概率
$247,959 交易量
$247,959 交易量
2026-08-31
是
<1% 概率
$247,959 交易量
$247,959 交易量
2026-08-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Persistent disagreements over territorial concessions, Ukrainian security guarantees, and Russia's maximalist demands have stalled all recent diplomatic efforts, with U.S.-brokered talks in early 2026 yielding no breakthrough. As of mid-August 2026, the conflict continues with Russian forces holding roughly 20 percent of Ukrainian territory and mutual long-range strikes, including a deadly Ukrainian drone attack inside Russia on August 11. The Kremlin stated in late July that it had seen no concrete new proposals, reinforcing trader consensus reflected in the 99.4 percent "No" probability. A signed peace deal by August 31 would require an abrupt reversal of entrenched positions and rapid agreement on complex terms amid active hostilities—scenarios possible only through undisclosed high-level diplomacy or sudden battlefield developments that have not materialized in the current window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
交易量
$247,959结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Persistent disagreements over territorial concessions, Ukrainian security guarantees, and Russia's maximalist demands have stalled all recent diplomatic efforts, with U.S.-brokered talks in early 2026 yielding no breakthrough. As of mid-August 2026, the conflict continues with Russian forces holding roughly 20 percent of Ukrainian territory and mutual long-range strikes, including a deadly Ukrainian drone attack inside Russia on August 11. The Kremlin stated in late July that it had seen no concrete new proposals, reinforcing trader consensus reflected in the 99.4 percent "No" probability. A signed peace deal by August 31 would require an abrupt reversal of entrenched positions and rapid agreement on complex terms amid active hostilities—scenarios possible only through undisclosed high-level diplomacy or sudden battlefield developments that have not materialized in the current window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$247,959结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent disagreements over territorial concessions, Ukrainian security guarantees, and Russia's maximalist demands have stalled all recent diplomatic efforts, with U.S.-brokered talks in early 2026 yielding no breakthrough. As of mid-August 2026, the conflict continues with Russian forces holding roughly 20 percent of Ukrainian territory and mutual long-range strikes, including a deadly Ukrainian drone attack inside Russia on August 11. The Kremlin stated in late July that it had seen no concrete new proposals, reinforcing trader consensus reflected in the 99.4 percent "No" probability. A signed peace deal by August 31 would require an abrupt reversal of entrenched positions and rapid agreement on complex terms amid active hostilities—scenarios possible only through undisclosed high-level diplomacy or sudden battlefield developments that have not materialized in the current window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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