Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon, including recent airstrikes and the establishment of a buffer zone, continue to shape low trader expectations for a full withdrawal by mid-2026. A truce reached in April has held amid sporadic violations, yet Israel conditions any pullback on Hezbollah's complete disarmament and lasting security arrangements along the border. Lebanese officials have rejected buffer zones or partial retreats ahead of bilateral talks scheduled for May 17 in Washington, which will address troop withdrawals, prisoner exchanges, and reconstruction. UN Security Council discussions on resolution 1701 implementation and the drawdown of UNIFIL by December 2026 add further context to the timeline. These intertwined security demands and negotiation dynamics explain the market's assessment of limited near-term progress.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$1,488,403 交易量
2026-06-30
5月31日
1%
6月30日
10%
$1,488,403 交易量
5月31日
$1,214,432 交易量
1%
6月30日
$198,965 交易量
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon, including recent airstrikes and the establishment of a buffer zone, continue to shape low trader expectations for a full withdrawal by mid-2026. A truce reached in April has held amid sporadic violations, yet Israel conditions any pullback on Hezbollah's complete disarmament and lasting security arrangements along the border. Lebanese officials have rejected buffer zones or partial retreats ahead of bilateral talks scheduled for May 17 in Washington, which will address troop withdrawals, prisoner exchanges, and reconstruction. UN Security Council discussions on resolution 1701 implementation and the drawdown of UNIFIL by December 2026 add further context to the timeline. These intertwined security demands and negotiation dynamics explain the market's assessment of limited near-term progress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
交易量
$1,488,403结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon, including recent airstrikes and the establishment of a buffer zone, continue to shape low trader expectations for a full withdrawal by mid-2026. A truce reached in April has held amid sporadic violations, yet Israel conditions any pullback on Hezbollah's complete disarmament and lasting security arrangements along the border. Lebanese officials have rejected buffer zones or partial retreats ahead of bilateral talks scheduled for May 17 in Washington, which will address troop withdrawals, prisoner exchanges, and reconstruction. UN Security Council discussions on resolution 1701 implementation and the drawdown of UNIFIL by December 2026 add further context to the timeline. These intertwined security demands and negotiation dynamics explain the market's assessment of limited near-term progress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
交易量
$1,488,403结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon, including recent airstrikes and the establishment of a buffer zone, continue to shape low trader expectations for a full withdrawal by mid-2026. A truce reached in April has held amid sporadic violations, yet Israel conditions any pullback on Hezbollah's complete disarmament and lasting security arrangements along the border. Lebanese officials have rejected buffer zones or partial retreats ahead of bilateral talks scheduled for May 17 in Washington, which will address troop withdrawals, prisoner exchanges, and reconstruction. UN Security Council discussions on resolution 1701 implementation and the drawdown of UNIFIL by December 2026 add further context to the timeline. These intertwined security demands and negotiation dynamics explain the market's assessment of limited near-term progress.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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