A fragile April 2026 ceasefire, mediated by Pakistan, continues to hold between the US, Israel, and Iran following direct hostilities, but phase-two talks for a permanent settlement remain stalled over core disputes including Iran's nuclear enrichment, ballistic missiles, proxy support for groups like Hezbollah, sanctions relief, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Vice President Vance cited US progress in Iran negotiations on May 13, yet President Trump warned days earlier that the truce is on "life support," while Israeli leaders insist on full dismantlement of Tehran's nuclear infrastructure as a precondition. Absent major diplomatic breakthroughs, trader consensus reflects entrenched positions limiting prospects for an imminent Israel-Iran peace agreement.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$840,124 交易量
2026-05-31
May 31
3%
6月30日
18%
$840,124 交易量
May 31
$245,502 交易量
3%
6月30日
$280,006 交易量
18%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A fragile April 2026 ceasefire, mediated by Pakistan, continues to hold between the US, Israel, and Iran following direct hostilities, but phase-two talks for a permanent settlement remain stalled over core disputes including Iran's nuclear enrichment, ballistic missiles, proxy support for groups like Hezbollah, sanctions relief, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Vice President Vance cited US progress in Iran negotiations on May 13, yet President Trump warned days earlier that the truce is on "life support," while Israeli leaders insist on full dismantlement of Tehran's nuclear infrastructure as a precondition. Absent major diplomatic breakthroughs, trader consensus reflects entrenched positions limiting prospects for an imminent Israel-Iran peace agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ET
交易量
$840,124结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A fragile April 2026 ceasefire, mediated by Pakistan, continues to hold between the US, Israel, and Iran following direct hostilities, but phase-two talks for a permanent settlement remain stalled over core disputes including Iran's nuclear enrichment, ballistic missiles, proxy support for groups like Hezbollah, sanctions relief, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Vice President Vance cited US progress in Iran negotiations on May 13, yet President Trump warned days earlier that the truce is on "life support," while Israeli leaders insist on full dismantlement of Tehran's nuclear infrastructure as a precondition. Absent major diplomatic breakthroughs, trader consensus reflects entrenched positions limiting prospects for an imminent Israel-Iran peace agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$840,124结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile April 2026 ceasefire, mediated by Pakistan, continues to hold between the US, Israel, and Iran following direct hostilities, but phase-two talks for a permanent settlement remain stalled over core disputes including Iran's nuclear enrichment, ballistic missiles, proxy support for groups like Hezbollah, sanctions relief, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Vice President Vance cited US progress in Iran negotiations on May 13, yet President Trump warned days earlier that the truce is on "life support," while Israeli leaders insist on full dismantlement of Tehran's nuclear infrastructure as a precondition. Absent major diplomatic breakthroughs, trader consensus reflects entrenched positions limiting prospects for an imminent Israel-Iran peace agreement.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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