Trader consensus prices low probabilities for any new country recognizing Israel by June 30, 2026—with Lebanon at 4% and Saudi Arabia at 3%—reflecting no official announcements since the market's November 20, 2025, start amid entrenched geopolitical barriers. An April 2026 Israel-Lebanon ceasefire and direct talks referenced a 1983 unfulfilled agreement on recognition but yielded no normalization steps, constrained by Hezbollah's influence and public opposition. Saudi Arabia's potential remains stalled post-Abraham Accords expansions, deterred by Palestinian statehood recognitions from Western allies like the UK, Canada, and Australia in 2025. Holdout nations, mostly ideologically opposed Muslim-majority states, face domestic pressures; no scheduled diplomatic summits signal shifts before the deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$329,581 交易量
朝鲜
4%
古巴
1%
沙特阿拉伯
3%
黎巴嫩
4%
阿富汗
1%
伊拉克
2%
巴基斯坦
1%
叙利亚
3%
委内瑞拉
1%
突尼斯
1%
科威特
1%
卡塔尔
2%
印尼
1%
马来西亚
1%
孟加拉国
3%
$329,581 交易量
朝鲜
4%
古巴
1%
沙特阿拉伯
3%
黎巴嫩
4%
阿富汗
1%
伊拉克
2%
巴基斯坦
1%
叙利亚
3%
委内瑞拉
1%
突尼斯
1%
科威特
1%
卡塔尔
2%
印尼
1%
马来西亚
1%
孟加拉国
3%
An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Nov 20, 2025, 2:05 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices low probabilities for any new country recognizing Israel by June 30, 2026—with Lebanon at 4% and Saudi Arabia at 3%—reflecting no official announcements since the market's November 20, 2025, start amid entrenched geopolitical barriers. An April 2026 Israel-Lebanon ceasefire and direct talks referenced a 1983 unfulfilled agreement on recognition but yielded no normalization steps, constrained by Hezbollah's influence and public opposition. Saudi Arabia's potential remains stalled post-Abraham Accords expansions, deterred by Palestinian statehood recognitions from Western allies like the UK, Canada, and Australia in 2025. Holdout nations, mostly ideologically opposed Muslim-majority states, face domestic pressures; no scheduled diplomatic summits signal shifts before the deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题