Lebanon's political landscape keeps Nawaf Salam's tenure as prime minister in tight balance through 2026, with trader consensus placing a slim 51% probability he completes the year. His recent diplomatic initiatives, including border security talks with Syria's interim president and U.S.-mediated ceasefire discussions with Israel, have bolstered institutional support from President Joseph Aoun and reinforced his focus on state authority over armed factions. Counterbalancing pressures include Hezbollah's opposition to normalization efforts, ongoing protests over security lapses and postponed international trips, and the fragile enforcement of the Blue Line truce amid unresolved economic reforms and sectarian power-sharing disputes. A parliamentary no-confidence vote or major ceasefire breakdown could accelerate his exit, while sustained progress on arms monopoly and prisoner releases might strengthen continuity.