**Joseph Aoun, elected president by Lebanon’s parliament in January 2025 with 99 votes, holds a six-year term amid ongoing efforts to reassert state authority after the 2024–2025 conflict with Israel.** Recent diplomatic activity reinforces his position: in mid-September 2026 he met French President Macron and Jordan’s King Abdullah in Paris to secure international backing for the Lebanese Armed Forces, discussed a potential security agreement with Israel as a step toward ending hostilities, and reiterated the non-negotiable goal of bringing Hezbollah weapons under state control without internal confrontation. Parliament renewed confidence in the government led by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, and Aoun continues to coordinate on southern deployments ahead of the UNIFIL mandate’s scheduled end on December 31, 2026. No parliamentary challenges, resignation signals, or constitutional mechanisms for early removal have surfaced in credible reporting. Traders therefore assign high implied probability to his continued tenure through year-end, consistent with the standard term length and the absence of acute political triggers.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
7% 概率
$32,495 交易量
$32,495 交易量
2026-12-31
是
7% 概率
$32,495 交易量
$32,495 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Joseph Aoun and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Joseph Aoun, elected president by Lebanon’s parliament in January 2025 with 99 votes, holds a six-year term amid ongoing efforts to reassert state authority after the 2024–2025 conflict with Israel.** Recent diplomatic activity reinforces his position: in mid-September 2026 he met French President Macron and Jordan’s King Abdullah in Paris to secure international backing for the Lebanese Armed Forces, discussed a potential security agreement with Israel as a step toward ending hostilities, and reiterated the non-negotiable goal of bringing Hezbollah weapons under state control without internal confrontation.
Parliament renewed confidence in the government led by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, and Aoun continues to coordinate on southern deployments ahead of the UNIFIL mandate’s scheduled end on December 31, 2026. No parliamentary challenges, resignation signals, or constitutional mechanisms for early removal have surfaced in credible reporting. Traders therefore assign high implied probability to his continued tenure through year-end, consistent with the standard term length and the absence of acute political triggers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Joseph Aoun and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Joseph Aoun and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 19, 2026, 2:02 PM ET
交易量
$32,495结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Mar 19, 2026, 2:02 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Joseph Aoun and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Joseph Aoun, elected president by Lebanon’s parliament in January 2025 with 99 votes, holds a six-year term amid ongoing efforts to reassert state authority after the 2024–2025 conflict with Israel.** Recent diplomatic activity reinforces his position: in mid-September 2026 he met French President Macron and Jordan’s King Abdullah in Paris to secure international backing for the Lebanese Armed Forces, discussed a potential security agreement with Israel as a step toward ending hostilities, and reiterated the non-negotiable goal of bringing Hezbollah weapons under state control without internal confrontation.
Parliament renewed confidence in the government led by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, and Aoun continues to coordinate on southern deployments ahead of the UNIFIL mandate’s scheduled end on December 31, 2026. No parliamentary challenges, resignation signals, or constitutional mechanisms for early removal have surfaced in credible reporting. Traders therefore assign high implied probability to his continued tenure through year-end, consistent with the standard term length and the absence of acute political triggers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Joseph Aoun and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Joseph Aoun and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$32,495结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Mar 19, 2026, 2:02 PM ET**Joseph Aoun, elected president by Lebanon’s parliament in January 2025 with 99 votes, holds a six-year term amid ongoing efforts to reassert state authority after the 2024–2025 conflict with Israel.** Recent diplomatic activity reinforces his position: in mid-September 2026 he met French President Macron and Jordan’s King Abdullah in Paris to secure international backing for the Lebanese Armed Forces, discussed a potential security agreement with Israel as a step toward ending hostilities, and reiterated the non-negotiable goal of bringing Hezbollah weapons under state control without internal confrontation. Parliament renewed confidence in the government led by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, and Aoun continues to coordinate on southern deployments ahead of the UNIFIL mandate’s scheduled end on December 31, 2026. No parliamentary challenges, resignation signals, or constitutional mechanisms for early removal have surfaced in credible reporting. Traders therefore assign high implied probability to his continued tenure through year-end, consistent with the standard term length and the absence of acute political triggers.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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