**Ongoing military conflict and stalled negotiations explain the 76.5% trader consensus against a UNSC-endorsed final U.S.-Iran deal by December 31.** The 2026 Iran war, which began with U.S.-Israel strikes in February targeting nuclear and military sites, produced an interim June memorandum of understanding that included a 60-day timeline for a comprehensive nuclear agreement, IAEA inspector access, sanctions relief, and Hormuz transit arrangements. However, that framework collapsed amid renewed U.S. blockades, Iranian attacks on shipping, and disputes over control of the Strait of Hormuz. As of mid-August, talks have reverted to intermediary messaging with no verified breakthrough on core issues such as enrichment limits, verification, or sanctions termination. These developments, combined with the short remaining window and historical patterns of negotiation breakdowns, underpin current market pricing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
22% 概率
$156,635 交易量
$156,635 交易量
2026-12-31
是
22% 概率
$156,635 交易量
$156,635 交易量
2026-12-31
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Ongoing military conflict and stalled negotiations explain the 76.5% trader consensus against a UNSC-endorsed final U.S.-Iran deal by December 31.**
The 2026 Iran war, which began with U.S.-Israel strikes in February targeting nuclear and military sites, produced an interim June memorandum of understanding that included a 60-day timeline for a comprehensive nuclear agreement, IAEA inspector access, sanctions relief, and Hormuz transit arrangements. However, that framework collapsed amid renewed U.S. blockades, Iranian attacks on shipping, and disputes over control of the Strait of Hormuz. As of mid-August, talks have reverted to intermediary messaging with no verified breakthrough on core issues such as enrichment limits, verification, or sanctions termination. These developments, combined with the short remaining window and historical patterns of negotiation breakdowns, underpin current market pricing.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ET
交易量
$156,635结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Ongoing military conflict and stalled negotiations explain the 76.5% trader consensus against a UNSC-endorsed final U.S.-Iran deal by December 31.**
The 2026 Iran war, which began with U.S.-Israel strikes in February targeting nuclear and military sites, produced an interim June memorandum of understanding that included a 60-day timeline for a comprehensive nuclear agreement, IAEA inspector access, sanctions relief, and Hormuz transit arrangements. However, that framework collapsed amid renewed U.S. blockades, Iranian attacks on shipping, and disputes over control of the Strait of Hormuz. As of mid-August, talks have reverted to intermediary messaging with no verified breakthrough on core issues such as enrichment limits, verification, or sanctions termination. These developments, combined with the short remaining window and historical patterns of negotiation breakdowns, underpin current market pricing.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$156,635结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing military conflict and stalled negotiations explain the 76.5% trader consensus against a UNSC-endorsed final U.S.-Iran deal by December 31.** The 2026 Iran war, which began with U.S.-Israel strikes in February targeting nuclear and military sites, produced an interim June memorandum of understanding that included a 60-day timeline for a comprehensive nuclear agreement, IAEA inspector access, sanctions relief, and Hormuz transit arrangements. However, that framework collapsed amid renewed U.S. blockades, Iranian attacks on shipping, and disputes over control of the Strait of Hormuz. As of mid-August, talks have reverted to intermediary messaging with no verified breakthrough on core issues such as enrichment limits, verification, or sanctions termination. These developments, combined with the short remaining window and historical patterns of negotiation breakdowns, underpin current market pricing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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