**Persistent diplomatic impasse on Iran's nuclear enrichment rights, despite resumed US-Iran talks mediated by Oman, underpins trader expectations that Tehran will not agree to end uranium enrichment by July 31.** Negotiations since early 2026 have produced limited progress on stockpile management and verification but remain deadlocked over core US demands for zero enrichment on Iranian soil, facility dismantlement, and permanent restrictions without sunset clauses. Iranian officials have repeatedly rejected these terms as incompatible with sovereign rights under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, insisting instead on limited or suspended enrichment for civilian purposes. Recent June 2026 draft exchanges and statements from both sides signal continued consultations rather than imminent concessions, with no verified breakthrough meeting the full scope of the market's resolution criteria before the tight deadline. This reflects the wisdom of crowds pricing in historical patterns of protracted nuclear diplomacy and structural red lines.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$41,977 交易量
$41,977 交易量
2026-07-31
$41,977 交易量
$41,977 交易量
2026-07-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Persistent diplomatic impasse on Iran's nuclear enrichment rights, despite resumed US-Iran talks mediated by Oman, underpins trader expectations that Tehran will not agree to end uranium enrichment by July 31.** Negotiations since early 2026 have produced limited progress on stockpile management and verification but remain deadlocked over core US demands for zero enrichment on Iranian soil, facility dismantlement, and permanent restrictions without sunset clauses. Iranian officials have repeatedly rejected these terms as incompatible with sovereign rights under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, insisting instead on limited or suspended enrichment for civilian purposes. Recent June 2026 draft exchanges and statements from both sides signal continued consultations rather than imminent concessions, with no verified breakthrough meeting the full scope of the market's resolution criteria before the tight deadline. This reflects the wisdom of crowds pricing in historical patterns of protracted nuclear diplomacy and structural red lines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： May 25, 2026, 2:32 PM ET
交易量
$41,977结束日期
2026-07-31市场开放时间
May 25, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Persistent diplomatic impasse on Iran's nuclear enrichment rights, despite resumed US-Iran talks mediated by Oman, underpins trader expectations that Tehran will not agree to end uranium enrichment by July 31.** Negotiations since early 2026 have produced limited progress on stockpile management and verification but remain deadlocked over core US demands for zero enrichment on Iranian soil, facility dismantlement, and permanent restrictions without sunset clauses. Iranian officials have repeatedly rejected these terms as incompatible with sovereign rights under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, insisting instead on limited or suspended enrichment for civilian purposes. Recent June 2026 draft exchanges and statements from both sides signal continued consultations rather than imminent concessions, with no verified breakthrough meeting the full scope of the market's resolution criteria before the tight deadline. This reflects the wisdom of crowds pricing in historical patterns of protracted nuclear diplomacy and structural red lines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$43,635结束日期
2026-07-31市场开放时间
May 25, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Persistent diplomatic impasse on Iran's nuclear enrichment rights, despite resumed US-Iran talks mediated by Oman, underpins trader expectations that Tehran will not agree to end uranium enrichment by July 31.** Negotiations since early 2026 have produced limited progress on stockpile management and verification but remain deadlocked over core US demands for zero enrichment on Iranian soil, facility dismantlement, and permanent restrictions without sunset clauses. Iranian officials have repeatedly rejected these terms as incompatible with sovereign rights under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, insisting instead on limited or suspended enrichment for civilian purposes. Recent June 2026 draft exchanges and statements from both sides signal continued consultations rather than imminent concessions, with no verified breakthrough meeting the full scope of the market's resolution criteria before the tight deadline. This reflects the wisdom of crowds pricing in historical patterns of protracted nuclear diplomacy and structural red lines.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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