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icon for 特朗普在...前宣布美国与伊朗停火？
地缘政治·伊朗

特朗普在...前宣布美国与伊朗停火？

icon for 特朗普在...前宣布美国与伊朗停火？
地缘政治·伊朗

特朗普在...前宣布美国与伊朗停火？

$2,968,699 交易量

2026-06-16
Polymarket

$2,968,699 交易量

Polymarket

6月15日

$1,066,310 交易量

1%

6月30日

$418,186 交易量

9%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. publicly and officially announces, between Market Creation and the End Date (11:59 PM ET) that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities. Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify. The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify. Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify. Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.Recent developments in the fragile US-Iran ceasefire, declared in early April 2026 and later extended indefinitely by President Trump amid intermittent violations by both sides, center on stalled talks over reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting related naval restrictions, and addressing Iran's nuclear program. Pakistan-mediated negotiations produced reports of a near-final memorandum of understanding for a 60-day extension and broader framework, with Trump citing breakthroughs and an expected signing around June 14. Iranian officials have signaled proximity to agreement while demanding concessions, though some US statements dismissed draft details as inaccurate and described the truce as precarious. Trader focus remains on whether diplomacy collapses into renewed strikes or yields formal extension amid these competing signals.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. publicly and officially announces, between Market Creation and the End Date (11:59 PM ET) that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities.

Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify.

The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify.

Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify.

Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify.

Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify.

Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
交易量
$2,968,699
结束日期
2026-06-30
市场开放时间
Jun 8, 2026, 9:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. publicly and officially announces, between Market Creation and the End Date (11:59 PM ET) that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities. Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify. The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify. Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify. Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. publicly and officially announces, between Market Creation and the End Date (11:59 PM ET) that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities. Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify. The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify. Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify. Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.Recent developments in the fragile US-Iran ceasefire, declared in early April 2026 and later extended indefinitely by President Trump amid intermittent violations by both sides, center on stalled talks over reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting related naval restrictions, and addressing Iran's nuclear program. Pakistan-mediated negotiations produced reports of a near-final memorandum of understanding for a 60-day extension and broader framework, with Trump citing breakthroughs and an expected signing around June 14. Iranian officials have signaled proximity to agreement while demanding concessions, though some US statements dismissed draft details as inaccurate and described the truce as precarious. Trader focus remains on whether diplomacy collapses into renewed strikes or yields formal extension amid these competing signals.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. publicly and officially announces, between Market Creation and the End Date (11:59 PM ET) that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities.

Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify.

The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify.

Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify.

Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify.

Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify.

Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
交易量
$2,968,699
结束日期
2026-06-30
市场开放时间
Jun 8, 2026, 9:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. publicly and officially announces, between Market Creation and the End Date (11:59 PM ET) that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities. Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify. The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify. Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify. Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"特朗普在...前宣布美国与伊朗停火？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 4 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"6月30日"，概率为 9%，其次是"6月15日"，概率为 1%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 9¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 9%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"特朗普在...前宣布美国与伊朗停火？"已产生 $3 million 的总交易量（自Jun 9, 2026市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"特朗普在...前宣布美国与伊朗停火？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 4 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

这是一个非常开放的市场。"特朗普在...前宣布美国与伊朗停火？"的当前领先者是"6月30日"，仅有 9%，"6月15日"紧随其后为 1%。由于没有任何结果占据明显优势，交易者认为这高度不确定，可能带来独特的交易机会。这些赔率实时更新，请将本页加入书签。

"特朗普在...前宣布美国与伊朗停火？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。