Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the 2026 Iran conflict have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at a small fraction of the pre-February average exceeding 100 vessels daily, with recent data showing only 0–10 ships per day amid Iranian restrictions, U.S. naval coordination of limited “dark” passages, and elevated war-risk premiums. Traders see the 25–49 and 100+ bins as the closest outcomes because stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations leave room for either sustained low-volume escorted traffic or a rapid rebound if security guarantees emerge. Recent incidents, including tanker interdictions and drone activity in early June, reinforce caution, while comments from tanker executives highlight the potential for quick normalization once credible de-escalation occurs. The tight spread reflects uncertainty over whether the coming week will see continued blockade effects or the first sustained increase in safe transits.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于75-99 43%
25-49 42%
50-74 41%
100+ 40%
最新
最新
2026-06-21
<25
30%
25-49
42%
50-74
41%
75-99
43%
100+
40%
75-99 43%
25-49 42%
50-74 41%
100+ 40%
最新
最新
2026-06-21
<25
$0 交易量
30%
25-49
$0 交易量
42%
50-74
$3 交易量
41%
75-99
$0 交易量
43%
100+
$0 交易量
40%
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 15, 2026, through June 21, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the 2026 Iran conflict have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at a small fraction of the pre-February average exceeding 100 vessels daily, with recent data showing only 0–10 ships per day amid Iranian restrictions, U.S. naval coordination of limited “dark” passages, and elevated war-risk premiums. Traders see the 25–49 and 100+ bins as the closest outcomes because stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations leave room for either sustained low-volume escorted traffic or a rapid rebound if security guarantees emerge. Recent incidents, including tanker interdictions and drone activity in early June, reinforce caution, while comments from tanker executives highlight the potential for quick normalization once credible de-escalation occurs. The tight spread reflects uncertainty over whether the coming week will see continued blockade effects or the first sustained increase in safe transits.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 15, 2026, through June 21, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市场开放时间： Jun 12, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
交易量
$3结束日期
2026-06-21市场开放时间
Jun 12, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 15, 2026, through June 21, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the 2026 Iran conflict have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at a small fraction of the pre-February average exceeding 100 vessels daily, with recent data showing only 0–10 ships per day amid Iranian restrictions, U.S. naval coordination of limited “dark” passages, and elevated war-risk premiums. Traders see the 25–49 and 100+ bins as the closest outcomes because stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations leave room for either sustained low-volume escorted traffic or a rapid rebound if security guarantees emerge. Recent incidents, including tanker interdictions and drone activity in early June, reinforce caution, while comments from tanker executives highlight the potential for quick normalization once credible de-escalation occurs. The tight spread reflects uncertainty over whether the coming week will see continued blockade effects or the first sustained increase in safe transits.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 15, 2026, through June 21, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$3结束日期
2026-06-21市场开放时间
Jun 12, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the 2026 Iran conflict have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at a small fraction of the pre-February average exceeding 100 vessels daily, with recent data showing only 0–10 ships per day amid Iranian restrictions, U.S. naval coordination of limited “dark” passages, and elevated war-risk premiums. Traders see the 25–49 and 100+ bins as the closest outcomes because stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations leave room for either sustained low-volume escorted traffic or a rapid rebound if security guarantees emerge. Recent incidents, including tanker interdictions and drone activity in early June, reinforce caution, while comments from tanker executives highlight the potential for quick normalization once credible de-escalation occurs. The tight spread reflects uncertainty over whether the coming week will see continued blockade effects or the first sustained increase in safe transits.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题