Trader consensus prices "No" at 73.5% for a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30, reflecting stalled indirect negotiations mediated by Oman and Pakistan amid unresolved disputes over uranium enrichment moratoriums, Iran's near-weapons-grade stockpile exceeding 400 kg, IAEA inspections, ballistic missiles, and proxy support. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed on May 4 no nuclear talks are planned, while President Trump stated May 12 the ceasefire is on "life support" and threatened escalation absent concessions. Iran is reviewing a preliminary US 14-point memorandum to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but it defers comprehensive nuclear curbs to a subsequent 30-day window—insufficient for final agreement by deadline per historical impasses since 2025 talks began.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$1,835,909 交易量
$1,835,909 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$1,835,909 交易量
$1,835,909 交易量
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus prices "No" at 73.5% for a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30, reflecting stalled indirect negotiations mediated by Oman and Pakistan amid unresolved disputes over uranium enrichment moratoriums, Iran's near-weapons-grade stockpile exceeding 400 kg, IAEA inspections, ballistic missiles, and proxy support. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed on May 4 no nuclear talks are planned, while President Trump stated May 12 the ceasefire is on "life support" and threatened escalation absent concessions. Iran is reviewing a preliminary US 14-point memorandum to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but it defers comprehensive nuclear curbs to a subsequent 30-day window—insufficient for final agreement by deadline per historical impasses since 2025 talks began.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
市场开放时间： Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ET
交易量
$1,835,909结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus prices "No" at 73.5% for a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30, reflecting stalled indirect negotiations mediated by Oman and Pakistan amid unresolved disputes over uranium enrichment moratoriums, Iran's near-weapons-grade stockpile exceeding 400 kg, IAEA inspections, ballistic missiles, and proxy support. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed on May 4 no nuclear talks are planned, while President Trump stated May 12 the ceasefire is on "life support" and threatened escalation absent concessions. Iran is reviewing a preliminary US 14-point memorandum to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but it defers comprehensive nuclear curbs to a subsequent 30-day window—insufficient for final agreement by deadline per historical impasses since 2025 talks began.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
交易量
$1,835,909结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 73.5% for a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30, reflecting stalled indirect negotiations mediated by Oman and Pakistan amid unresolved disputes over uranium enrichment moratoriums, Iran's near-weapons-grade stockpile exceeding 400 kg, IAEA inspections, ballistic missiles, and proxy support. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed on May 4 no nuclear talks are planned, while President Trump stated May 12 the ceasefire is on "life support" and threatened escalation absent concessions. Iran is reviewing a preliminary US 14-point memorandum to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but it defers comprehensive nuclear curbs to a subsequent 30-day window—insufficient for final agreement by deadline per historical impasses since 2025 talks began.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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