Vice President JD Vance's May 13 statement highlighting progress in US-Iran negotiations has driven trader consensus to a 55% implied probability for a nuclear deal before 2027, reflecting cautious optimism amid indirect talks mediated by Pakistan. Recent proposals center on a preliminary ceasefire framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, followed by comprehensive curbs on Iran's uranium enrichment—potentially a 10-20 year moratorium—in exchange for phased sanctions relief. Despite stalls over Tehran's rejection of upfront nuclear concessions and President Trump's demands for permanent limits on ballistic missiles, diplomats note narrowing gaps since early May one-page peace outlines. With 18 months left, upcoming rounds and de-escalation incentives could resolve key hurdles like stockpile transfers and verification.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$1,319,419 交易量
$1,319,419 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$1,319,419 交易量
$1,319,419 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Vice President JD Vance's May 13 statement highlighting progress in US-Iran negotiations has driven trader consensus to a 55% implied probability for a nuclear deal before 2027, reflecting cautious optimism amid indirect talks mediated by Pakistan. Recent proposals center on a preliminary ceasefire framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, followed by comprehensive curbs on Iran's uranium enrichment—potentially a 10-20 year moratorium—in exchange for phased sanctions relief. Despite stalls over Tehran's rejection of upfront nuclear concessions and President Trump's demands for permanent limits on ballistic missiles, diplomats note narrowing gaps since early May one-page peace outlines. With 18 months left, upcoming rounds and de-escalation incentives could resolve key hurdles like stockpile transfers and verification.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ET
交易量
$1,319,419结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Vice President JD Vance's May 13 statement highlighting progress in US-Iran negotiations has driven trader consensus to a 55% implied probability for a nuclear deal before 2027, reflecting cautious optimism amid indirect talks mediated by Pakistan. Recent proposals center on a preliminary ceasefire framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, followed by comprehensive curbs on Iran's uranium enrichment—potentially a 10-20 year moratorium—in exchange for phased sanctions relief. Despite stalls over Tehran's rejection of upfront nuclear concessions and President Trump's demands for permanent limits on ballistic missiles, diplomats note narrowing gaps since early May one-page peace outlines. With 18 months left, upcoming rounds and de-escalation incentives could resolve key hurdles like stockpile transfers and verification.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
交易量
$1,319,419结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Vice President JD Vance's May 13 statement highlighting progress in US-Iran negotiations has driven trader consensus to a 55% implied probability for a nuclear deal before 2027, reflecting cautious optimism amid indirect talks mediated by Pakistan. Recent proposals center on a preliminary ceasefire framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, followed by comprehensive curbs on Iran's uranium enrichment—potentially a 10-20 year moratorium—in exchange for phased sanctions relief. Despite stalls over Tehran's rejection of upfront nuclear concessions and President Trump's demands for permanent limits on ballistic missiles, diplomats note narrowing gaps since early May one-page peace outlines. With 18 months left, upcoming rounds and de-escalation incentives could resolve key hurdles like stockpile transfers and verification.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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