Both countries restored full diplomatic relations in 2021 under the Al-Ula framework and reopened embassies in 2023, with ongoing bilateral mechanisms such as the Qatar-UAE Joint Supreme Committee holding its seventh session in May 2026 to advance economic integration, trade, and Gulf security coordination. Traders assign a 95.2% probability to no severance by year-end because structural incentives—including shared GCC membership, commercial interests, and mutual avoidance of public rupture—continue to outweigh competitive frictions described in recent analyses as a managed “cold peace.” Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include sharp divergence in responses to regional conflicts, sudden policy realignments, or external pressures that force one side into direct opposition before December 31, 2026.