Saudi Arabia maintains an explicit, non-negotiable requirement for an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital before any normalization with Israel, a position reinforced by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and senior officials since the October 2023 Hamas attack. Hostile Saudi public opinion, with surveys showing near-universal opposition, combined with recent Israeli operations in Gaza, Lebanon, and Qatar, has shifted Riyadh toward viewing normalization as a strategic liability rather than an opportunity. Saudi media and elites increasingly criticize the Abraham Accords framework, while Riyadh pursues alternative security arrangements such as the 2026 defense pact with Pakistan. U.S. efforts, including linkage of a civilian nuclear agreement to normalization, have not altered this stance. These developments sustain trader consensus that formal diplomatic relations remain unlikely before 2027.