Saudi Arabia’s insistence on a credible path to Palestinian statehood as a precondition for normalizing relations with Israel remains unmet, anchoring trader consensus against a deal before 2027. Stalled Gaza ceasefire talks, including disagreements over Hamas disarmament and reconstruction, have kept formal negotiations frozen since October 2023. Recent assessments highlight Riyadh’s view of greater risks than opportunities, driven by hostile domestic public opinion and strategic realignments, with no major diplomatic breakthroughs reported in the past several months. Shared concerns over Iran continue to provide a potential foundation, yet absent tangible progress on Palestinian issues or U.S. security guarantees, the barriers to expanding the Abraham Accords framework stay substantial.