Recent U.S. counterintelligence actions against Iranian-linked activities, including the FBI's May 14 reward announcement for apprehending a previously indicted former U.S. official accused of espionage for Iran, reflect sustained enforcement priorities amid elevated bilateral tensions. Ongoing investigations into sanctions evasion and alleged covert operations by Iranian nationals have produced prior indictments in 2026, supporting trader expectations of additional formal charges before the May 31 deadline. The compressed two-week window limits certainty, yet historical patterns of DOJ unsealing cases on short notice during periods of diplomatic friction sustain the current 62.5% implied probability for a "Yes" outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-05-31
最新
最新
2026-05-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent U.S. counterintelligence actions against Iranian-linked activities, including the FBI's May 14 reward announcement for apprehending a previously indicted former U.S. official accused of espionage for Iran, reflect sustained enforcement priorities amid elevated bilateral tensions. Ongoing investigations into sanctions evasion and alleged covert operations by Iranian nationals have produced prior indictments in 2026, supporting trader expectations of additional formal charges before the May 31 deadline. The compressed two-week window limits certainty, yet historical patterns of DOJ unsealing cases on short notice during periods of diplomatic friction sustain the current 62.5% implied probability for a "Yes" outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 20, 2026, 5:30 PM ET
交易量
$7,684结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 20, 2026, 5:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent U.S. counterintelligence actions against Iranian-linked activities, including the FBI's May 14 reward announcement for apprehending a previously indicted former U.S. official accused of espionage for Iran, reflect sustained enforcement priorities amid elevated bilateral tensions. Ongoing investigations into sanctions evasion and alleged covert operations by Iranian nationals have produced prior indictments in 2026, supporting trader expectations of additional formal charges before the May 31 deadline. The compressed two-week window limits certainty, yet historical patterns of DOJ unsealing cases on short notice during periods of diplomatic friction sustain the current 62.5% implied probability for a "Yes" outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$7,684结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 20, 2026, 5:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. counterintelligence actions against Iranian-linked activities, including the FBI's May 14 reward announcement for apprehending a previously indicted former U.S. official accused of espionage for Iran, reflect sustained enforcement priorities amid elevated bilateral tensions. Ongoing investigations into sanctions evasion and alleged covert operations by Iranian nationals have produced prior indictments in 2026, supporting trader expectations of additional formal charges before the May 31 deadline. The compressed two-week window limits certainty, yet historical patterns of DOJ unsealing cases on short notice during periods of diplomatic friction sustain the current 62.5% implied probability for a "Yes" outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题