This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between September 30 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "No meeting by June 30" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.
A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.
An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.
For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The dominant market position on no Trump-Putin meeting by June 30 stems from the absence of any announced bilateral summit or confirmed diplomatic schedule in the weeks ahead, despite ongoing U.S.-Russia channels on issues such as the Ukraine conflict and arms control. Traders appear to view the current environment of indirect negotiations and preparatory staff-level contacts as unlikely to produce a face-to-face encounter before the cutoff, consistent with historical patterns where such high-level meetings require extended advance coordination. A late diplomatic breakthrough, sudden crisis requiring direct leader intervention, or unexpected invitation from a neutral venue could still shift probabilities, though these remain low-probability developments within the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between September 30 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "No meeting by June 30" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.
A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.
An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.
For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between September 30 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "No meeting by June 30" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.
A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.
An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.
For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The dominant market position on no Trump-Putin meeting by June 30 stems from the absence of any announced bilateral summit or confirmed diplomatic schedule in the weeks ahead, despite ongoing U.S.-Russia channels on issues such as the Ukraine conflict and arms control. Traders appear to view the current environment of indirect negotiations and preparatory staff-level contacts as unlikely to produce a face-to-face encounter before the cutoff, consistent with historical patterns where such high-level meetings require extended advance coordination. A late diplomatic breakthrough, sudden crisis requiring direct leader intervention, or unexpected invitation from a neutral venue could still shift probabilities, though these remain low-probability developments within the resolution window.
US jobs report shows strong hiring despite Iran war
No meeting by June 30 surges to 89%19%
Robust US employment data improved domestic economic confidence in Trump’s leadership, indirectly supporting the “No meeting” outlook as market participants focused on domestic issues.
May 10 2026
Trump’s Greenland envoy sparks speculation about Middle‑East diplomatic moves
A brief surge in price fluctuation was linked to speculation that a secret meeting could be arranged in a Gulf country after Trump’s envoy to Greenland hinted at renewed Middle‑East outreach, but no concrete evidence emerged.
Apr 25 2026
Trump‑Putin phone call after Davos Board of Peace event
Russia dips to 28%4%
Following the Board of Peace signing, Trump and Putin spoke on the phone, reviving speculation of a meeting but without concrete plans, causing a modest rise in the Russia outcome.
Apr 21 2026
Trump rolls out his Board of Peace at Davos, invites Putin without confirming attendance
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 89%9%
Trump’s declaration at the World Economic Forum in Davos that he was rolling out a “Board of Peace” and that Putin had been invited but not yet responded reinforced expectations that a direct meeting was unlikely before June 30.
Apr 15 2026
Trump announces three‑day ceasefire in Ukraine
No meeting by June 30 surges to 70%25%
A US‑brokered ceasefire reduced immediate war pressure, but the lack of a concrete peace deal lowered expectations of a Trump‑Putin meeting, pushing the market toward “No meeting.”
Apr 3 2026
Trump‑Xi summit held in Beijing
China plunges to 5%15%
The actual Trump‑Xi meeting confirmed Beijing as the venue for the highest‑level US‑China dialogue, virtually eliminating the China outcome and boosting the “No meeting” probability.
Mar 8 2026
Putin arrives in New Delhi on a state visit aimed at bolstering Russia‑India ties
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 80%7%
A report that Putin was visiting India for a state visit was interpreted as a sign that his diplomatic itinerary was full, reducing the likelihood of a Trump‑Putin meeting and pushing the “no meeting” price higher.
Mar 8 2026
Trump‑Putin meeting rumored at Gulf summit in Doha
Gulf country drops to 30%8%
Leaks suggested a possible Trump‑Putin encounter at a Gulf Cooperation Council summit, briefly raising the Gulf‑country outcome.
Feb 20 2026
China reports 14.1% jump in April exports ahead of Trump‑Xi summit
China drops to 20%10%
Strong Chinese export data boosted confidence in a Beijing meeting, further collapsing the China outcome probability.
Feb 5 2026
US‑Russia New START treaty limits reaffirmed by Russia
Russia drops to 32%6%
Russia’s pledge to honor New START if the US does so reduced immediate nuclear tensions, slightly improving the prospect of a meeting in Russia.
Jan 20 2026
Trump says Putin and he had a two‑hour call and are getting closer to a deal
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 62%5%
Trump announced on Air Force One that he had spoken with Putin for over two hours and that both leaders were “getting a lot closer,” reviving speculation of an imminent meeting and causing a temporary dip in the no‑meeting price.
Jan 10 2026
Trump hosts Board of Peace signing ceremony in Davos
Russia drops to 38%7%
The high‑profile event brought many world leaders together, including an invitation to Putin, reviving speculation of a Trump‑Putin meeting in a neutral venue and lifting the Russia outcome slightly.
Dec 28 2025
Putin warns Russia will extend gains if peace talks fail
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 45%10%
Putin’s hard‑line statement after stalled U.S.‑led peace talks suggested a deteriorating diplomatic climate, pushing the market back toward a “No meeting” outlook.
Dec 15 2025
Trump‑Xi summit scheduled in Beijing
China plunges to 30%19%
News that Trump would meet Xi in Beijing heightened expectations of a China venue for a Trump‑Putin encounter, sharply reducing the China outcome probability.
Dec 15 2025
U.S. envoys Witkoff and Kushner hold marathon talks with Putin in Moscow
No meeting by June 30 surges to 56%24%
U.S. envoys Witkoff and Kushner met with Putin in Moscow for marathon talks, confirming that no direct Trump‑Putin meeting was scheduled and pushing the market back toward a “no meeting” outlook.
Dec 1 2025
Trump announces framework for Greenland deal, drops NATO tariff threat
Other EU country drops to 40%6%
The announcement shifted attention to the Arctic and reduced pressure on European allies, lowering the perceived need for a Trump‑Putin meeting in Europe and nudging the market toward a Gulf or Russia outcome.
Nov 5 2025
Putin arrives in India for state visit
Gulf country drops to 38%8%
Putin’s India trip was seen as a signal that he was focusing on non‑Western partners, increasing speculation that a Trump‑Putin meeting could be arranged in a Gulf country during the visit.
Oct 12 2025
Trump‑Putin phone call discussed cease‑fire in Kyiv
Russia drops to 45%11%
President Trump said he secured a one‑week pause on Russian strikes on Kyiv after a phone call with Putin, raising hopes of direct talks and moving the market away from a Gulf‑state meeting toward a possible Russia meeting.
Oct 8 2025
Trump says he asked Putin not to target Kyiv for one week during brutal cold spell
No meeting by June 30 rises to 31%2%
Trump publicly claimed that Putin had agreed not to target Kyiv for a week during a severe cold spell, signalling a direct communication line between the two leaders and fuelling market expectations of a forthcoming meeting.
This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between September 30 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "No meeting by June 30" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.
A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.
An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.
For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The dominant market position on no Trump-Putin meeting by June 30 stems from the absence of any announced bilateral summit or confirmed diplomatic schedule in the weeks ahead, despite ongoing U.S.-Russia channels on issues such as the Ukraine conflict and arms control. Traders appear to view the current environment of indirect negotiations and preparatory staff-level contacts as unlikely to produce a face-to-face encounter before the cutoff, consistent with historical patterns where such high-level meetings require extended advance coordination. A late diplomatic breakthrough, sudden crisis requiring direct leader intervention, or unexpected invitation from a neutral venue could still shift probabilities, though these remain low-probability developments within the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between September 30 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "No meeting by June 30" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.
A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.
An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.
For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between September 30 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "No meeting by June 30" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.
A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.
An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.
For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The dominant market position on no Trump-Putin meeting by June 30 stems from the absence of any announced bilateral summit or confirmed diplomatic schedule in the weeks ahead, despite ongoing U.S.-Russia channels on issues such as the Ukraine conflict and arms control. Traders appear to view the current environment of indirect negotiations and preparatory staff-level contacts as unlikely to produce a face-to-face encounter before the cutoff, consistent with historical patterns where such high-level meetings require extended advance coordination. A late diplomatic breakthrough, sudden crisis requiring direct leader intervention, or unexpected invitation from a neutral venue could still shift probabilities, though these remain low-probability developments within the resolution window.
US jobs report shows strong hiring despite Iran war
No meeting by June 30 surges to 89%19%
Robust US employment data improved domestic economic confidence in Trump’s leadership, indirectly supporting the “No meeting” outlook as market participants focused on domestic issues.
May 10 2026
Trump’s Greenland envoy sparks speculation about Middle‑East diplomatic moves
A brief surge in price fluctuation was linked to speculation that a secret meeting could be arranged in a Gulf country after Trump’s envoy to Greenland hinted at renewed Middle‑East outreach, but no concrete evidence emerged.
Apr 25 2026
Trump‑Putin phone call after Davos Board of Peace event
Russia dips to 28%4%
Following the Board of Peace signing, Trump and Putin spoke on the phone, reviving speculation of a meeting but without concrete plans, causing a modest rise in the Russia outcome.
Apr 21 2026
Trump rolls out his Board of Peace at Davos, invites Putin without confirming attendance
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 89%9%
Trump’s declaration at the World Economic Forum in Davos that he was rolling out a “Board of Peace” and that Putin had been invited but not yet responded reinforced expectations that a direct meeting was unlikely before June 30.
Apr 15 2026
Trump announces three‑day ceasefire in Ukraine
No meeting by June 30 surges to 70%25%
A US‑brokered ceasefire reduced immediate war pressure, but the lack of a concrete peace deal lowered expectations of a Trump‑Putin meeting, pushing the market toward “No meeting.”
Apr 3 2026
Trump‑Xi summit held in Beijing
China plunges to 5%15%
The actual Trump‑Xi meeting confirmed Beijing as the venue for the highest‑level US‑China dialogue, virtually eliminating the China outcome and boosting the “No meeting” probability.
Mar 8 2026
Putin arrives in New Delhi on a state visit aimed at bolstering Russia‑India ties
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 80%7%
A report that Putin was visiting India for a state visit was interpreted as a sign that his diplomatic itinerary was full, reducing the likelihood of a Trump‑Putin meeting and pushing the “no meeting” price higher.
Mar 8 2026
Trump‑Putin meeting rumored at Gulf summit in Doha
Gulf country drops to 30%8%
Leaks suggested a possible Trump‑Putin encounter at a Gulf Cooperation Council summit, briefly raising the Gulf‑country outcome.
Feb 20 2026
China reports 14.1% jump in April exports ahead of Trump‑Xi summit
China drops to 20%10%
Strong Chinese export data boosted confidence in a Beijing meeting, further collapsing the China outcome probability.
Feb 5 2026
US‑Russia New START treaty limits reaffirmed by Russia
Russia drops to 32%6%
Russia’s pledge to honor New START if the US does so reduced immediate nuclear tensions, slightly improving the prospect of a meeting in Russia.
Jan 20 2026
Trump says Putin and he had a two‑hour call and are getting closer to a deal
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 62%5%
Trump announced on Air Force One that he had spoken with Putin for over two hours and that both leaders were “getting a lot closer,” reviving speculation of an imminent meeting and causing a temporary dip in the no‑meeting price.
Jan 10 2026
Trump hosts Board of Peace signing ceremony in Davos
Russia drops to 38%7%
The high‑profile event brought many world leaders together, including an invitation to Putin, reviving speculation of a Trump‑Putin meeting in a neutral venue and lifting the Russia outcome slightly.
Dec 28 2025
Putin warns Russia will extend gains if peace talks fail
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 45%10%
Putin’s hard‑line statement after stalled U.S.‑led peace talks suggested a deteriorating diplomatic climate, pushing the market back toward a “No meeting” outlook.
Dec 15 2025
Trump‑Xi summit scheduled in Beijing
China plunges to 30%19%
News that Trump would meet Xi in Beijing heightened expectations of a China venue for a Trump‑Putin encounter, sharply reducing the China outcome probability.
Dec 15 2025
U.S. envoys Witkoff and Kushner hold marathon talks with Putin in Moscow
No meeting by June 30 surges to 56%24%
U.S. envoys Witkoff and Kushner met with Putin in Moscow for marathon talks, confirming that no direct Trump‑Putin meeting was scheduled and pushing the market back toward a “no meeting” outlook.
Dec 1 2025
Trump announces framework for Greenland deal, drops NATO tariff threat
Other EU country drops to 40%6%
The announcement shifted attention to the Arctic and reduced pressure on European allies, lowering the perceived need for a Trump‑Putin meeting in Europe and nudging the market toward a Gulf or Russia outcome.
Nov 5 2025
Putin arrives in India for state visit
Gulf country drops to 38%8%
Putin’s India trip was seen as a signal that he was focusing on non‑Western partners, increasing speculation that a Trump‑Putin meeting could be arranged in a Gulf country during the visit.
Oct 12 2025
Trump‑Putin phone call discussed cease‑fire in Kyiv
Russia drops to 45%11%
President Trump said he secured a one‑week pause on Russian strikes on Kyiv after a phone call with Putin, raising hopes of direct talks and moving the market away from a Gulf‑state meeting toward a possible Russia meeting.
Oct 8 2025
Trump says he asked Putin not to target Kyiv for one week during brutal cold spell
No meeting by June 30 rises to 31%2%
Trump publicly claimed that Putin had agreed not to target Kyiv for a week during a severe cold spell, signalling a direct communication line between the two leaders and fuelling market expectations of a forthcoming meeting.
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题