US federal prosecutors are pursuing Maduro on drug trafficking, narco-terrorism, weapons, and newly added torture conspiracy charges following his January 2026 capture in a US military operation, with trial proceedings now scheduled for June 2027 after his not-guilty plea to the expanded indictment. Traders appear to price the 55% probability of no prison time on the strength of his sovereign immunity arguments, ongoing diplomatic cooperation between the US and Venezuela’s interim leadership under Delcy Rodríguez, and the extended timeline that allows for potential dismissal, negotiated resolution, or executive action before conviction. Conviction risks remain material, as all counts together carry a 50-year mandatory minimum, which supports the secondary 21.5% price on 60+ years, while shorter sentence bands reflect lower-probability outcomes if only subsets of charges succeed.