Marília Campos (PT), former Contagem mayor, holds the leading trader-implied probability for first place in the Minas Gerais Senate race amid a fragmented field of more than two dozen candidates. Her position stems from established name recognition, consistent leads in recent polls at 19-24 percent, and alignment with the Workers’ Party, even as the party explored shifting her to the gubernatorial contest. Multiple contenders, including Marcelo Aro, Carlos Viana, and Domingos Sávio, trail with single-digit or low double-digit support, reflecting vote splitting across center-right and opposition options ahead of official campaigning. The race remains tightly contested because no clear runner-up has consolidated support, and developments such as coalition announcements, candidate withdrawals, or late endorsements could consolidate preferences and widen gaps before the October 4 vote.